McPherson, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS63 KICT 191719
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot temperatures to overspread the area for today
  through Saturday with some records likely set, especially on
  Friday. Cold front set to move through on Sunday, knocking
  temperatures back down to seasonable normals to start to work
  week.

- Warmer temperatures anticipated for both Tuesday and Wednesday
  of next week.

- Precip looks to remain out of the forecast for at least the
  next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Currently have a strong upper ridging encompassing the Desert
Southwest with northwest flow in place over the Plains. Upper
ridge is expected to remain in place for today and Friday with
850mb temps by Fri afternoon in the 17-20C range. With deep
mixing, this will easily result in temps in the upper 80s if not
close to 90 degrees. With records on Friday all in the mid and
upper 80s, there`s a good chance most if not all will be
broken. There remains good model agreement that some shortwave
energy will slide across the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Intermountain on Friday night and into the Northern Plains on
Saturday. This will allow a cold front to start its push south.
So confidence is high that Saturday will be the last
unseasonably hot day, before a cold front moves through the area
on Sunday. Regarding the 00z model runs, the ECMWF is slightly
faster with the front compared to the GFS and NAM and would
result in southern and southeast KS still seeing above normal
highs on Sunday.

Behind the front, we will get back to seasonal temps to start
the work week, with highs generally in the low 60s. While
confidence is high that we will get back into a warming trend
for Tuesday and Wednesday, confidence starts to drop off after
this point. The latest run of the ECMWF is starting to trend
closer to the GFS in breaking down the western CONUS ridge more
than previous forecasts. If this trend continues, it could
signal another cold front to move through later next week.
Confidence also still remains high that we are not looking for
any decent precip events through the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light
northwesterly winds under 10 kts will continue through 00z. Then
light winds will shift to southerly tonight and continue
shifting to westerly by 12z. At 15z, winds will shift to
northwesterly and increase to around 10 kts at RSL, GBD, and
SLN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Very high fire danger will be likely on Saturday across parts of
central KS, with very high fire danger expected to be in place
area wide on Sunday.

For Saturday, the main driver for fire danger will be hot
temperatures that will produce low afternoon RH values in the
15-20% range. Winds will be out of the southwest around 15 mph
with a few gusts to 20 mph.

For Sunday, cold front will move through the area during the day
with gusty north winds following behind the front. Even with
cooler air and higher RH`s moving in, there will still be
several hours of very high fire danger across most of the area,
with the main driver being increased winds behind the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record highs are likely on Friday, and maybe Saturday.

Friday (3/20):
Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 89 (2017)
Salina: Forecast -  87, Record - 86 (1934)
Chanute: Forecast - 87, Record - 87 (2017)
Russell: Forecast - 87, Record - 85 (1953)

Saturday (3/21):
Wichita: Forecast - 90, Record - 92 (1916)
Salina:  Forecast - 91, Record - 96 (1907)
Chanute: Forecast - 88, Record - 95 (1916)
Russell: Forecast - 92, Record - 85 (1997)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
CLIMATE...JC