Junction City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS63 KTOP 162306
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
506 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An overall warmer than normal pattern remains in place this
forecast period with highs in the upper 40s and even near 60 at
times.

- An overall dry pattern also looks to remain in place outside of a
few rainshowers late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A 20-40%
chance of precipitation sets up across northeast Kansas areas.

- Windy conditions behind the front ramp up Thursday morning as dry
air pushes into the area. A wind advisory may be needed for this
period.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of north-central
into east-central Kansas areas due to the combined impacts of the
northwest wind along with the dry conditions expected. A Red Flag
warning may be needed in later forecast updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Current surface and satellite analysis suggests that the mean
Westerlies and surface frontal systems remain tracking across the
northern tier of the CONUS. Mild weather remains across the area as
a result of weaker cold intrusions this far south with 50s in place
and near 60 at some spots over western areas. Downsloping winds over
western Kansas are bumping temperatures up to 70! A weak surface
trough is over central into north-central Kansas and will continue
to be dragged east as a low pressure system over east central Canada
works east.

A progressive pattern remains across the northern CONUS with a low
amplitude trough-ridge-trough pattern in place. The next clipper
system is poised to make its way into the northern Plains tomorrow
night into Thursday morning which will cause rapid cyclogenesis to
take place with a modified cold front developing and pushing through
the area likely before sunrise on Thursday. This brings an increased
chance for precipitation across northeastern sections of the area
with around a tenth of an inch of QPF possible and generally a 20-
40% chance of light rainshowers before sunrise. H85 temps remain
warm enough to keep all liquid in the forecast with sufficiently
warm profiles to the surface before the modified colder air works
into the area. Temperatures are expected to be slightly lower
Thursday but still warm by relative standards into the upper 40s to
around 50. The overall clipper system shifts east into the western
Great Lakes quickly so the the pressure gradient from the system
this far south looks overall weaker than one would expect to cause
winds to push much higher than advisory criteria. Expecting near
advisory or advisory criteria area-wide as the push of dry air works
into the region. Additionally, fire weather concerns appear to set
up especially over north-central into east-central areas by late
morning into the afternoon as fuels are likely cured. One limited
factor may be the depth of mixing of dry air to the surface but the
strong northwest winds are expected to offset slightly more moist
air. Regardless, minRH values may still drop to the low 20 percent
range and cause efficient spreading of any fires that could start.
Burning is not advised for Thursday and if any fires have been
ongoing leading up to Thursday should be monitored to ensure they
have been completely extinguished.

The warm pattern remains through Christmas so a white Christmas
around the Topeka area doesn`t look very likely at all.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Latest model guidance wants to keep any fog development south of the
terminals. So the forecast is for VFR conditions to prevail with just
some high clouds. Low level moisture return kicks in towards 00Z
Thursday. This looks to bring in some MVFR CIGS after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters