Emporia, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS63 KTOP 182301
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon, with the most
    widespread storms and heavy rain potential Saturday night into
    Sunday. Strong to severe storms and flooding will be possible.

Shower and storm chances gradually diminish Sunday night into
    Monday as the front shifts east

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure at the surface and relatively weak flow aloft will lead
to a dry and calm night tonight and day tomorrow. By tomorrow
evening, southerly surface flow strengthens, allowing modest moisture
return. This moisture return, combined with an increasing low-level
jet and a weak mid-level wave may produce some showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

The pattern becomes more active over the weekend as a surface low
deepens and pushes into the central Plains. Models continue to
highlight the central Plains for a period of heavy rainfall and
strong/severe thunderstorm potential Saturday into Sunday as deep
moisture and instability pool along and south of a cold front. On
Saturday, most of the daylight hours still appear largely dry, with
highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
humidity. A cap may be in place most of the day, limiting convective
development until the main front moves through in the evening, but
should the cap be overcome, isolated strong to severe storms would be
possible Saturday afternoon with several thousand joules of CAPE and
~50 knots of bulk shear. Convective development is expected to ramp
up significantly Saturday night as the main upper-level wave moves in
and a low-level jet develops. Forecast soundings suggest ample
instability and sufficient shear for an organized cluster of storms
and notably, very heavy rainfall with PWATs above the daily max for
this time of the year. There is a growing concern for flooding with
model guidance consistently depicting over two inches of rain across
most the area and northern Kansas potentially seeing several inches
more than that. WPC has outlined a portion of central and northern
Kansas in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Severe weather
potential will overlap with the heavy rain threat, particularly early
in the convective cycle Saturday evening when storms are more
discrete, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. As
storms grow upscale into clusters or an MCS overnight, the threat may
transition more toward strong winds and heavy rain.

By Sunday, the front gradually shifts east while showers and storms
may persist behind the front as another fast-moving mid-level wave
moves out of Nebraska. Surface high pressure moves in for Monday,
bringing an end to rain temporarily, but with westerly flow aloft
favored to continue, additional rounds of rain are possible next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions expected. Light winds and clearing skies overnight
could lead to patchy fog development before sunrise Friday,
especially at KTOP. Confidence is too low to include in TAF.
Winds become southeasterly Friday morning, but remain light.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan