Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

720
FXUS63 KICT 222329
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
529 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temps expected to continue through Friday
  with some record highs possible on both Thursday and Friday.

- Cold front to move through on Saturday and bring cooler temps
  back for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Currently have upper ridging spanning the Southern Plains with
some upper energy off of the Pacific Northwest coast. At the
surface, weak lee troughing extends from Eastern WY into Eastern
CO with a cold front stretching across southern ND.

Main challenge for tonight into Tue will be fog potential.
Unseasonably moist airmass is in place from eastern OK into TX
with upper 50 degree dewpoints near the Red River. These high
dewpoints will continue to work north this evening with fog
expected to develop, especially across the Flint Hills into
southeast KS. The main challenge will be trying to determine if
we get a fog/low cig combo or mainly just fog. Current thinking
is that far southeast KS will see a mix of LIFR cigs and fog
with mainly fog anticipated on the western fringes of the low
cigs, which would be over the Flint Hills back to near Wichita.
Previous forecast had mention of patchy fog and only change will
be increase to areas for Southeast KS.

Not much is expected to change for Tue into Tue night with
upper ridging over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley with
shortwave troughing just off of the West Coast. This setup will
continue to promote highs in the 60s area wide for Tue. Mid and
upper flow will turn more sw for Wed and will allow warmer
700-850mb temps to move into most of the Southern and Central
Plains. At this time, 850mb temps are looking at a standard
anomaly of 3-4 for 850mb temps for Wed into Thu with an EFI in
the 0.8 to 1 range. This will bring max temps both Wed and Thu
in the 70s, especially for southern KS. There has been a slight
southern and southwesterly trend to 925-850mb temps over the
last couple of model runs, so there`s a good chance the highest
temps on Christmas day will occur over southern KS where upper
70s to near 80 will be possible. Records could be tough to break
for Christmas Eve but will definitely be in play for Christmas
Day and for Friday.

Some weak upper energy will track out of the Central Rockies and
across the Northern/Central Plains on Thu afternoon through Thu
evening and will start to break down the upper ridging. There is
decent agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a more pronounced
shortwave trough tracking out of Southwest Canada and into the
Northern Plains for Fri night into Sat. This will push a cold
front through at some point on Sat with the timing having a big
impact on max temps on Sat. However, confidence is high that we
are looking at much cooler temps for Sun, with highs back closer
to seasonal normals for this time of year. Confidence also
remains high that we are not looking at any decent precip
chances through the next 7 days and likely beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions expected to dominate the region this evening into
tonight with light winds across the area.

After 09Z, widespread dense fog is expected to develop along and
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike with sites around and between
KICT and KCNU likely to be affected. Currently, TAFs highlight
vis around 1/2 of a mile during the morning hours on Tuesday.
However, it is likely that periods of vis under 1/4 will occur.
Between 15-18Z, conditions are expected to gradually improve.
VFR conditions should return area-wide between 18-21Z on
Tuesday. Winds during the day on Tuesday are expected to remain
under 10 knots across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC