Pella, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS63 KDMX 151711
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry through the first part of this week, leading to
  melting of snow during the days and potential for fog and re-
  freezing during the nights.

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning. Both rain and snow are possible.

- Gusty winds possible on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 246 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Forecast generally remains on track from previous discussion, with
only minor additions to the forecast within the next 24 hours.
Temperatures have been warming through the night and will
continue to warm today with highs near to below freezing over
snowpack and in the 30s over the less-snowy southwest. Dewpoints
will also steadily increase today, but generally remain in the
teens to 20s, which will keep wetbulbs below freezing and slow
the snow melt. However, with the higher dewpoint air moving in,
light winds overnight, and extensive snowpack on the ground, it
stands to reason that there will be some fog potential as
temperatures cool off tonight into Tuesday. Patchy high cloud
cover over the northern half of Iowa may inhibit cooling some,
but with these clouds being fairly high in the atmosphere not
expecting them to hinder radiational cooling at the surface too
much, especially with snow on the ground. Therefore, patchy to
areas of fog have been added to the forecast. Of note,
temperatures will be below freezing tonight and will cause any
fog that develops to freeze onto surfaces, potentially making
them slick by Tuesday morning. Fortunately, winds and
temperatures increase again Tuesday morning, which will disperse
fog and melt slick spots by mid- day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

With the jet stream displaced to the north of the state, the first
part of this week will feature milder and dry conditions. The milder
conditions will result in melting of some or all of the snowpack
depending on the snow depth on the ground. With higher above 32
degree wet bulb temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over
the southwestern half of the state, these days look more prime for
melting. This, of course, will bring concerns for refreeze as the
sun sets each night on area surfaces. Beyond the melting snow
and fog potential, a shortwave trough will trek along the US and
Canadian border Tuesday that will result in an overall increase
in cloudiness over Iowa, but soundings continue to show too
much dry air for any precipitation. The more impactful system
looks to arrive Wednesday into Thursday as an amplified
shortwave trough travels from the Pacific Northwest to around
Minnesota. With the associated surface low pressure staying
north of Iowa as well, this will keep the state in the warm
sector with more than sufficient low level thermodynamic and
upper level kinematic forcing for precipitation. Thus,
expectation is for precipitation type to favor rain at least
initially, though some snow may mix in as colder air wraps in
behind the cold front and departing low. A period of strong and
gusty winds is also expected on Thursday with gusts over 35 mph
possible in at least some portions of Iowa dependent on storm
track and strength. Temperatures do lower with lows Friday
morning back to around zero degrees over northern Iowa and highs
knocked back to near seasonal levels for mid-December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Main change this issuance is introducing IFR cigs in the north
for fog tonight. Less confident in IFR for DSM and OTM due to
less snow pack as well as winds. Northern sites may have windows
of LIFR and will depend on cloud coverage after 06z. winds will
become southwesterly after 12z with clouds and fog lingering
well after 12z, especially in northern Iowa.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dodson
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Jimenez