Makaha, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXHW60 PHFO 030156
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving across Kauai this afternoon will
progress down the island chain tonight, finally stalling out and
diminishing near the Big Island by Tuesday afternoon.
Southwesterly winds will remain in the breezy to strong range with
higher gusts through tonight ahead of the front. Briefly breezy
northwesterly winds with cool and dry conditions will follow
behind the frontal passage. A stronger weather system may produce
more significant weather impacts across from late Friday onward
with the potential for periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows bands of cumulus clouds
with embedded showers streaming northeastward across the state
from the southwest, out ahead of a cold front currently moving
across Kauai. Strong to locally gusty southwest winds have firmly
increased to Wind Advisory levels across all Hawaiian Islands,
with sustained speeds generally in the 20 to 30 mph range and
gusts frequently reaching 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. The
strongest winds continue to favor higher terrain and areas north
and east of island terrain features. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through tonight to address these conditions, though winds
are expected to ease below advisory levels as the front passes and
winds shift out of the northwest. Even stronger winds are
expected across the highest summits on the Big Island, where
speeds will increase to warning levels later this afternoon and
evening. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the summits of
Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa through Wednesday.

The cold front is currently crossing Kauai this afternoon and
remains on track to reach Oahu this evening, Maui County late
tonight, and the Big Island Tuesday morning, though with
noticeably weaker shower activity by the time it reaches the
eastern end of the state. The most significant rainfall is
expected to occur during a four to six hour window as the main
frontal band moves through each island. Cooler and drier
northwesterly winds will follow the front, allowing overnight and
early morning temperatures to dip into the 60s as clearer skies
and drier air promote more efficient radiational cooling.

Lighter winds are expected to return from Tuesday night through
Thursday as a weak high pressure system settles just north of the
islands and drifts eastward. By Thursday night into Friday, winds
will shift back out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front
approaching from the northwest. Current guidance suggests this
front may stall near Kauai and Oahu from Saturday night into
Sunday as the associated cold pool aloft evolves into a cutoff low
near the islands.

Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding the impacts of this
cutoff low heading into the weekend. Recent model trends show the
front slowing sooner and stalling farther north than earlier
forecasts suggested, with the upper low also trending westward
over time. If this system sets up close enough to the islands, it
could produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, with an
increased risk for flooding from Saturday through Monday. At this
time, the highest potential for significant impacts appears to be
across the western islands, including Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu.
However, impacts will depend heavily on the eventual placement and
evolution of the upper low. This system will continue to be
closely monitored as forecast confidence improves over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty southwesterly winds continue for the islands ahead of an
advancing cold front that is expected to bring a round of showers
through early morning Tuesday. These showers may bring MVFR
conditions, primarily due to degraded cigs, with isolated IFR
conditions possible. This front is currently impacting Kauai, and
is expected to move southeast through Oahu and Maui County this
evening and overnight, before weakening as it reaches the Big
Island by early morning Tuesday. Winds will shift more north and
northwesterly behind the front for during the day Tuesday.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai,
Maui, and Lanai. This may need to be expanded as the front moves
southeast across the island chain.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate with isolated severe
low level turbulence below 5000 feet over and downwind (north and
east) of mountain terrain across all islands. The strongest
turbulence will be felt surface to 2000 feet in these areas.
Conditions are expected to improve overnight as winds weaken
behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
A front that is currently over the northwest coastal waters near
Kauai this afternoon will continue moving moving across the state
through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect
for all waters due to strong southwesterly winds as the front
approaches and moves through tonight. The front will swiftly move
through Kauai this evening, with moderate to strong northwesterly
winds filling in behind. The front will then weaken, and winds
will gradually ease to moderate to fresh speeds as it progresses
through the eastern half of the island chain overnight through
Tuesday. Winds will shift out of the east on Wednesday as a weak
high quickly moves from west to east over the state. Light to
gentle southerly winds will return Thursday as another front
approaches the state from the northwest. Southerly winds will
gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds Friday ahead of
the next front with moderate to locally strong northerly winds
filling in behind the front as the front moves southeast over the
state Friday into the weekend.

Surf heights are expected to rapidly build along north and west
facing shores this evening and peak Tuesday well above High Surf
Warning levels along most north and west facing shores as an
extra large northwest swell builds in. While northwest Hawaii buoy
51001 is still showing predominantly short period wind-generated
swell this afternoon, there have been upward trends in the medium
to long period 13 to 17 second bands throughout the day,
indicating forerunners of the incoming northwest extra large swell
energy. Though the swell will peak on Tuesday, overlapping pulses
will keep surf elevated through Wednesday before subsiding below
High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night into Friday. With this
afternoon`s forecast updates, a High Surf Warning has been issued
for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai,
and the Big Island, and for north facing shores of Maui. This
swell will also push combined seas well above the 10 foot SCA
threshold in many areas. Another extra large swell is possible
late Friday and Saturday.

Rough choppy surf along south facing shores will hold through
tonight as southerly winds remain strong ahead of the front. Surf
along east facing shores will remain tiny through much of the
week due to lack of strong trades near and upstream of the state.
An increase surf is possible along east shores this weekend.

The Coastal Flood Statement will remain in effect through Tuesday
morning, as peak monthly tides coincide with much higher than
predicted ocean levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal
infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during peak
high tides through the morning hours again early Tuesday.
Thereafter, mean higher high water (MHHW) levels at the daily high
tides are expected to be lower, and the Coastal Flood Statement
will likely be cancelled or allowed to expire.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kona-
Kohala-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-
Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala-Big Island East-Big
Island North.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central
Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-
Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Kauai North-
Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-
Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai
Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-
South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
East-Big Island North.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian
waters except Maalaea Bay-

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Evans/Foster
MARINE...Vaughan