Kapaa, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXHW60 PHFO 041856
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
856 AM HST Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades hold through today. A sea breeze pattern then
develops for the midweek period followed by returning light
trades. Limited rainfall during this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Stable moderate trades in place with a rather flat inversion at
7000. Mid and upper levels are particularly dry and stable today per
this morning`s soundings out of Lihue and Hilo. No meaningful
weather anticipated as some trapped boundary layer moisture delivers
light showers windward and mauka today into tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM HST Mon May 4 2026
Moderate easterly trades will remain in place today, with low
clouds and a few light showers focused over windward and mauka
areas. Leeward areas will remain mostly dry, with only isolated
passing showers possible.

Beginning Tuesday, the ridge north of the islands will weaken in
response to a series of cold fronts passing well north of the
state. This will lead to a gradual easing of the trade winds, with
local land and sea breeze circulations becoming more dominant
through midweek. From Tuesday through Thursday, a more humid air
mass will settle over the islands, with dewpoints potentially
climbing into the mid- to upper-60s. These dewpoints combined
with the afternoon sea breezes will support localized afternoon
cloud buildups and a few brief showers over interior and leeward
areas, followed by clearing at night as land breezes develop.

By the latter part of the week into the weekend, moisture and
rainfall chances may trend up. Global guidance indicates upper
heights lowering as an upper-level disturbance approaches the
region. In addition, a weak attendant frontal boundary may move
into the area. However, there remains considerable spread among
the model solutions regarding the timing and strength of these
features, so confidence in the details remains limited at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate trades continue through today, with clouds and brief
showers expected over windward sites. Periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibility are possible in showers, otherwise widespread VFR is
expected. Trades are expected to begin weakening tomorrow,
allowing land and sea breezes to occur.

No AIRMET`s are currently in effect, but mountain obscurations
over windward areas are possible later today due to upstream
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM HST Mon May 4 2026
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will be in place today and
then weaken to land/sea breezes Tuesday and Wednesday as a front
to the northwest passes by to the north and weakens the ridge.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to redevelop Thursday
and Friday before another front passes by to the north this
weekend and make winds light and variable.

A moderate northwest swell coming in a little below guidance will
build today and produce surf above seasonal average during the
peak tonight and early Tuesday. This swell will slowly decline
late Tuesday and Wednesday. A larger northwest swell could produce
surf near the High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower
Friday into next weekend.

A south-southwest swell will gradually decrease today and
Tuesday, with small pulses keeping surf from going flat for the
later half of the week.

Trade wind swell will lower below seasonal average today and will

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM UPDATE...JVC
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Tsamous