Rising Sun-Lebanon, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXUS61 KPHI 191814
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
214 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory issued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Gusty winds develop Friday afternoon with milder air
followed by some showers Friday night into early Saturday
morning.

2. Temperatures continue to moderate this weekend with some
showers Sunday night into Monday morning, then turning colder
with gusty winds early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds develop Friday afternoon with milder
air followed by some showers Friday night into early Saturday
morning.

An upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen as it slides across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast Friday into Friday night. This
will drive a quick moving surface low that tracks to our north
Friday night into early Saturday morning. A warm front will continue
to lift across our area ahead of it followed by a weak cold front
later Friday night. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten
quite a bit during Friday ahead of this surface low, and with the
low to mid level flow increasing in response, southwesterly surface
flow will increase across our area. The model forecast soundings
show some increase of the mixing layer during the day Friday,
especially in the afternoon, and this will result in an increasing
breeze. The peak wind gusts look to be up to 30 mph before
diminishing Friday evening. It will be turning warmer, however a
southerly wind will keep coastal areas much cooler. There will be
enough moisture and forcing for some showers to develop upstream and
these then slide southeastward starting later Friday afternoon
(northwest areas) and continuing Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Rainfall amounts look to be on the lighter side. Some
elevated instability may try to approach from the west Friday night,
however any thunder looks to remain west of our region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures continue to moderate this weekend with
some showers Sunday night into Monday morning, then turning colder
with gusty winds early next week.

Our region will be to the northeast of a strong ridge in the
southern Plains to the Southwest U.S. This ridge is kept at bay due
to the northern stream tossing energy across the Northeast. The next
system will be low pressure tracking to our north Sunday night into
Monday morning, which pulls a strong cold front across our area.
Prior to this front, a warmer air mass will be in place with some
areas reaching to around 70F on Sunday. Some guidance is slower
however with the cold front which does not bring it across our
entire area until Monday morning. This would keep some showers going
during the first half of Monday. High temperatures on Monday look to
occur during the first half of the day, then as cold air advection
deepens and strengths the temperatures should tend to fall some
during the afternoon. A pressure gradient tightens in the wake of
low pressure departing New England Monday and high pressure building
toward the Ohio Valley. This combined with strong cold air advection
will steepen the low-level lapse rates and result in deeper mixing.
A gusty northwest winds results during Monday especially in the
afternoon into the evening, with peak wind gusts potentially
reaching 30-40 mph. There will be less wind on Tuesday, however
chilly temperatures remain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR ceilings scattering out from west
to east. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Southerly winds diminishing to 5 knots or less, then
becoming light and variable to calm at most terminals. High
confidence.

Friday...VFR with increasing clouds. Southwest winds around 5 knots,
increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts up to 25 knots. The
strongest winds occur in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible
with showers Friday night into early Saturday, otherwise VFR.

Sunday and Monday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible with
showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Northwesterly winds could
gust up to 30 knots on Monday.

Tuesday...VFR with less wind.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight. Stronger flow develops during Friday with
a low-level jet arriving. This stronger flow will usher in milder
air over the colder ocean therefore mixing will not be as efficient.
However, a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots look probable
with seas getting to 5 feet. Therefore, issued a Small Craft
Advisory for Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions subside, especially
overnight.

Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Sunday and Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable
starting Sunday night and continuing on Monday.

Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
     night for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse
MARINE...Gorse