Bear, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

983
FXUS61 KPHI 022339
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Below normal temperatures will continue this week with many areas
remaining below freezing. Dangerously cold wind chills return for
the weekend.

2. A couple opportunities for light snow to occur across the region
this week. The first coming Tuesday night and the second coming on
Friday. Removed wording suggesting any snowfall greater than one
inch for Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures will continue this week
with many areas remaining below freezing. Dangerously cold wind chills
return for the weekend.

High pressure situated off the coast of the Southeast U.S. Tuesday,
with return flow allowing for slightly milder (relatively speaking)
temperatures. Regardless, temperatures will remain below normal
for the entire week ahead. Highs on Tuesday for the Delaware
Valley, including Philadelphia, southern New Jersey, and
Delmarva will top off in the mid to upper 30s with perhaps a few
highs near 40 in southern Delaware. North of that area, for the
southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley,
highs will mostly be in the upper 20s to low 30s with some spots
touching the freezing mark depending on the amount of sunshine.
Temperatures for the rest of the week will then remain mostly
below freezing where highs will generally be in the low 20s to
low 30s. Another Arctic front arrives by Friday night and highs
over the weekend look to be in the teens and 20s once again.

In terms of low temperatures, despite highs mostly in the 30s or so
this week, lows will be in the single digits and teens with the
exception of Tuesday night. By the weekend, lows will range
from the single digits to as low as 5 below zero. Wind chills
will once again return to dangerously cold levels over the
weekend, where another round of cold weather headlines may be
warranted towards the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Two opportunities for light snow to occur across the
region this week. The first is Tuesday night and the second for Friday.

Surface high pressure remains over the Southeast coast Tuesday before
moving out into the western Atlantic Tuesday night. A broad upper
trough digs down into the Southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast
states while a closed mid-level low tracks across Ontario and
Quebec. Associated strong shortwave energy passes across the Northeast
as a weak surface low originating from the Midwest approaches the
Middle-Atlantic late Tuesday. These features then pass through
the area overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This system
is quite weak in nature and moisture starved, but with strong shortwave
energy and sufficient cold air in place, anticipate an area of light
snow to overspread the area overnight. In terms of snowfall amounts,
expecting a coating to an inch of snow in most places, especially
south of I-78. For areas north of I-78, perhaps some flurries but
no accumulations expected. Overall, minimal impacts are expected
with snow ending by Wednesday morning.

The next chance for snow arrives on Friday and possibly into Friday
evening. A strong clipper system moves by to the north and an associated
Arctic front will cross the region. It`s too early for any specifics
on this system, but a period of light snow and/or snow squalls are
probable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR, with clouds increasing and lowering some overnight.
West-northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable.
Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR ceilings. Light and variable winds becoming west-
northwest 5-10 knots during the morning, then becoming west to
southwest. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Prevailing VFR with sub-VFR conditions and light
snow possible.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance of light snow on Friday,
otherwise, no significant weather expected.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. Gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 1 AM for all ocean
zones mostly for lingering elevated seas of around 5 feet. No
marine headlines on Delaware Bay.

Sub-SCA conditions expected for Tuesday.

Regarding the river ice threat...Ice cover exists across area
bay waters and inland estuaries. This includes, but is not
limited to the Delaware estuary. On rivers, the ice has grown in
thickness enough to cause restrictions in the flow. An example
of this can be seen at the Trenton River gauge. Per satellite
imagery, the Delaware River is pretty much ice covered from just
south of Trenton upstream to about Washington Crossing.

The most common ways river ice can break up is either through a
thermal or mechanical means. We would like to see temperatures rise
into the 40s for a few days, but that`s not in the offing through
the weekend. Rainfall, producing river rises, can also break up
ice. But again, that`s not in the forecast either this week.

As a result, we expect the ice we`re seeing to expand before it
contracts. Even though there may be a pause in the growth during the
daylight hours this week, temperatures at night will support expansion.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... No marine headlines expected as winds
mainly remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Periods of
light snow possible on Tuesday night and Friday, otherwise fair
weather.

Friday night through Saturday... Gales probable. Cold. Freezing
spray expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/Hoeflich/OHara
AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/OHara