Fort Collins, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

610
FXUS65 KBOU 061954
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
154 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (15% to 55%) for precipitation over the
  mountains and adjacent plains Tuesday. Highest chances in
  mountains and Palmer Divide.

- Front on Wednesday with elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions over the plains and foothills Wednesday afternoon.
  Low chance (<35%) for light showers on Wednesday.

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Monday. Potential for
  isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The backdoor cold front has pushed west through much of the plains
as of early this afternoon, leaving east/northeast winds behind
it. Winds overnight will pick up from the east as a surface low to
our south and the surface high to our northeast tightens the
pressure gradient and we see a secondary push of cooler east
winds. Wind gusts around 25 to 35mph are expected across much of
the plains throughout the evening, with winds beginning to
decrease around midnight. We do have some low end precip chances
(<25%) late this evening and early overnight across the northeast
plains associated with some weak lift from an upper level
disturbance and maybe a little bit of help from some weak low to
mid level frontogenesis. Precip chances will continue into early
Tuesday afternoon for our mountains and Palmer Divide area as a
shortwave moves through and orographic lift helps chances in the
mountains. Models are showing some instability across the area
(CAPES around 500 J/Kg in some areas), so we could see a few
thunderstorm with any activity on Tuesday. However, the forcing
and moisture present does not look super great, so QPF amounts
remain on the lower end.

An upper low will move out of Canada and into the northern plains
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Models are showing a downward
trend in the winds for Wednesday, with gusts now staying around 50
to 60 mph in the highest elevations, with gusts around 20 to 40mph
pushing into the foothills and adjacent plains Wednesday morning. As
the upper low moves through to our north on Wednesday, a cold front
will move through the area late Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon. Winds behind the front will be breezy, with gusts
around 20 to 35mph. These stronger winds could lead to elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions, however RHs look
borderline at this time.

The weather for the rest of the week will remain active. A series
of upper level disturbances will move through the flow aloft as
an upper level low sits over the West Coast. This combined with
increasing moisture throughout the column (PWATs approaching the
climatological 99th percentile by Saturday) will help bring some
low to medium chances for rain each afternoon through the end of
the week. In additional to potential rainfall, we`ll also have to
keep an eye on thunderstorm potential as models show instability
across portions of our CWA most afternoons. QPF looks to
generally stay below half an inch for this time period, but with
the scattered and potentially convective nature of this activity,
QPF amounts and locations are very difficult this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Winds for the rest of today will transition to more of an easterly
direction and remain light until a secondary surge of a cool
airmass pushes through from the northeast bringing a period of
breeziness to the region around 00Z-04Z. We have introduced a
TEMPO to account for the possibility of 25-30KT wind gusts at
KDEN. Confidence in gusts greater than 20KT reaching KAPA and KBJC
is low (20% chance) at this time. We expect ceilings to begin
lowering to about 6000ft by midnight, with the possibility of BKN
1000ft stratus at KDEN and KAPA between 10Z and 14Z.

Ceilings should lift by 17Z Tuesday and winds will become light
SE across all airports through the afternoon. However, high- res
model guidance suggests isolated high-based showers developing
over the Denver metro area at 21-23Z. Any showers or virga that
develops will have the potential for outflows and microbursts
with 25-30KT gusts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...AA