Tionesta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS66 KMFR 192105
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
205 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.DISCUSSION...Unusually warm temperatures mixed with some fire
weather concerns are the main headlines in the forecast for
today. The fire weather conditions are discussed in the Fire
Weather section below. We set 6 temperature records yesterday with
North Bend the only site missing out due to some onshore flow and
coastal stratus.

The Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) continues to show widespread
values of 1 today. This suggests the ECMWF ensemble members are
all exceeding the model climatology in widespread areas. The 500
mb heights around 586dm are also in the extremes of climatology
for this time of year in northern California. This will continue
to result in daytime temperatures pushing 15 to 25 degrees above
normal for mid March with multiple records potentially falling
yet again today.

Alturas` record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Mount Shasta City`s record of 74 will fall to a high around 82.
Montague`s record of 77 will probably fall to a high around 79.
Medford`s record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Klamath Falls` record of 72 will fall to a high around 76.
Roseburg`s record of 81 will likely stand today as we`re only
forecasting a high of 76 up there. There will be some weak lift
farther to the north in Central Oregon, so some high clouds
could keep things a little cooler up there. There is also some
stronger onshore flow there as well.

By Friday, the ridge begins to break down as 500 mb heights start
to lower over Oregon and northern California. Even with the
breakdown, we`re still expecting some more temperature records to
fall across the region. Eventually, a short wave and cold front
will push into the forecast area around Saturday morning with a
slight chance of rain. No wind, hydro, or winter impacts are
anticipated with this frontal passage. Temperatures will trend
cooler as relatively cooler air moves in behind the front.
Surprisingly enough, given the record-brekaing warmth of the last
several days, we may see frost return to the West Side valleys,
and a few areas could see freezing conditions, Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Essentially, all the blooms we have seen recently
are at risk of cold temperatures this weekend.

Monday will be a be a break between the systems before models
want to spin up another low in the Pacific. The GFS low center
still seems to be too far east compared to the ensemble range. In
any case, the probability of precipitation forecast is around 60
to 80 percent Tuesday into Wednesday with snow levels dropping
down to 4000 feet or lower behind the front. Don`t count on a lot
of snow with this system as only a few inches are anticipated in
the Cascades. However, we will see another round of cold
temperatures, with frost and freeze even more likely Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

-Smith/BPN

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with light winds will
prevail through the afternoon. IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast
to return later this evening to the coast and will lift near 15Z.
VFR conditions will be present overnight inland. -Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...Conditions
will remain below advisory levels through Friday evening. A thermal
trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds with
gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas possible
into Monday. A Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued for Saturday
morning through early Monday for areas south of Port Orford. The
outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and
evening. Advisory strength winds are likely around the Tuesday and
Wednesday timeframe as another cold front swings through the waters.
Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough. -Hermansen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...An
abnormally strong ridge remains in place today, then will retreat as
a dry cold front approaches and passes through the area Friday into
Saturday.

Under the ridge, very warm conditions continue, with near-record or
record daily high temperatures expected again today, with low
daytime humidities and moderate recoveries, poor over the ridges.

The mostly dry front approaches the area tomorrow into Friday before
passing through the region Friday night into Saturday. This will
produce breezy winds across the area, with gusty winds of 25 mph or
more east of the Cascades. These winds, combined with residual low
humidities, will produce critical fire weather conditions in fire
zones 625 and eastern 624, with dry and breezy conditions expected
elsewhere east of the Cascades, including in Modoc and eastern
Siskiyou counties. With the abnormally dry conditions, low snowpack,
and pre-greenup fuels across the area of concern, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for this afternoon for zones 625 and eastern 624. In
these areas, there is a 50 to 70 percent probability of humidities
below 15 percent occuring concurrent with wind gusts above 25 mph.
These ensembles have a tendency to underestimate winds and
overestimate humidities, so those probabilities may actually be
higher within the Warning area. Details on the Red Flag Warning can
be found in the PDXRFWMFR.

Conditions Friday afternoon will be similar, but slightly improved,
although dry humidities and gusty winds are still expected, and will
shift slightly east and south from those of today.

Conditions cool to more seasonable values and humidities rise a bit
this weekend behind the departing front, then wetter and cooler
conditions are possible with a more active pattern by the middle of
next week. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$