Sierra Madre, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS66 KLOX 021353
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
553 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/1210 AM.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday with some
patches of dense morning fog near the coast. Another warming
trend will kick off on Tuesday, with near record high temperatures
possible by Wednesday along with moderate Santa Ana winds.
Another more pronounced cooling trend to follow after Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/256 AM.

Current satellite imagery shows thin high clouds over the region,
obscuring any view of low clouds that may be marching toward LA
County from the south. That being said, the forecast leans toward
low clouds and dense fog (given the onshore trends of the surface
pressure gradients) for coastal locations south of Point
Conception this morning, but it is a toss up on whether the clouds
will actually reach our counties.

Aside from the uncertainty in low clouds early this morning, the
partly cloudy mornings skies should see afternoon clearing, with
high temps mainly in the 70s, except a few readings reaching the
80s for the warmest valleys. Despite being slightly cooler than
yesterday`s temperatures, these high temps are still 5-10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. This evening, onshore flow
from the west will switch back to offshore, keeping the majority
of the coasts clear from low clouds and dense fog for the next few
nights, save for the SW LA Coast which may see some of those low
clouds sneak in tonight.

The offshore flow will restrengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday with
LAX-DAG sfc pressure gradients reaching around -6.0 mb on
Wednesday and Thursday, and LAX-BFL reaching around -4.0 mb on
Wednesday (and weaker on Thursday). The strengthen offshore flow
paired with climbing 500 mb heights from 575 dam today to 582 dam
Tuesday night through Wednesday, will lead to another round of
drier and warmer conditions for the region Tuesday through
Thursday morning, with gusty Santa Ana winds. As a result, high
temperatures will increase across the region each day, with highs
pushing into the 80s range across the coasts and coastal valleys
of LA and Ventura counties, while the remainder of locations such
as the Antelope Valley and Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties will mainly be in the 70s to low 80s. High temperatures
will peak on Wednesday when the offshore flow and 500 mb heights
peak, and highs across the warmest locations may even squeak into
the low 90s. These temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal
across the region for this time of year.

As for winds, because LAX-DAG sfc pressure gradient (west-east)
is stronger than the LAX-BFL sfc pressure gradient (south-north),
the strongest winds will be more focused from Santa Clarita
Valley through the Oxnard Plains, rather than pushing into the
eastern San Fernando Valley. Additionally, the Santa Ana winds
will have better upper support this time, and like the
temperatures will also peak on Wednesday. Gusts up to 50 mph will
be common in the mountains and 25-40 mph elsewhere in the favored
Santa Ana wind areas. Could see some isolated peaks around 60 mph
in the San Gabriel Mountains and the Santa Monicas

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/256 AM.

The Santa Ana winds and warm temperatures will continue into
Thursday as mentioned above, but will likely be slightly cooler
with weaker winds as the 500 mb heights start to lower and the
sfc pressure gradients will weaken as the high pressure aloft
shifts eastward and another trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. There could still be some advisory level winds, mainly
in the mountains and foothills, but upper support is weakening at
that point.

The 500 mb heights start dropping rapidly from 582 dam on
Wednesday to 574 dam on Friday, while the sfc pressure gradients
weaken and switch onshore. This will result in more pronounced
cooling on Friday with temps dropping back in the 70s (still 5-10
degrees above normal for this time though).

Beyond Friday, there is still some disagreement in the models.
While the GFS and EC deterministic models suggest brief light rain
on Saturday morning (certainly possible considering the rapidly
decreasing 500 mb heights to 563ish dam as a trough approaches),
their respective ensembles are staying dry until the deterministic
and ensembles somewhat come to agreement on rain around the 10th
through 12th. The aforementioned rain would be the result of a
low pressure system dropping into the region, however amounts
look to be under 1.00 inch at this time (which could certainly
change in the next 8 days).

In the meantime, it looks like the most likely outcome for next
weekend is continued dry weather with temperatures still well
above normal and possibly another light to moderate Santa Ana wind
event.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1351Z.

Around 13Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak
sfc-based inversion with a top at 900 ft and a temp of 17 C.

Moderate to low confidence in coastal TAFs south of Point
Conception and KPRB, high confidence in remainder of TAFs.

There is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds at KOXR, KCMA, and KSMO
through 18Z Mon. There is a 50% chance of conds remaining VFR at
KLAX and KLGB through the period. After 08Z Tue, there is a 30-40%
chance of VLIFR/LIFR conds at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. For KPRB, vis
may bounce cats through the morning.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 50% chance
that conds remain VFR through 07Z Tue, but if cigs do arrive,
there is a 50% chance of 1/4SM FG VV002 conds. After 08Z Tue,
there is a 35% chance of 1/4-1SM FG/BR BKN002-004 conds through
16Z Tue. Good confidence in no significant east wind component.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...02/1237 AM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point
Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Expecting Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds to gradually decrease Monday,
with SCA level seas lingering into Monday night. Tuesday through
Thursday, offshore northeast winds will develop each morning, and
there is a 30-40% chance for localized gusts near SCA levels for
the near shore waters around Morro Bay and near the Channel
Islands. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the
outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds
may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday a
moderately long-period W swell will bring seas of 4-8 feet to the
southern inner waters. Then Tuesday night through Wednesday and
potentially into Thursday morning, local areas of SCA level
northeast winds will be possible from Ventura Harbor south through
Malibu and off the coast of Orange County. Northwest winds should
increase to SCA levels over the waters early next week, especially
Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for
      zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...LP/MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox