Seven Oaks, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS66 KSGX 130823
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
123 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture surge will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to the mountains today with a slight chance of precipitation
reaching into the lower elevations. Building high pressure will
bring above average temperatures for midweek with highest
temperatures on Wednesday. Widespread moderate to major HeatRisk
is expected. This will also subdue thunderstorm coverage with only
a slight chance of precipitation in the mountains. The high
pressure breaks down by the weekend with temperatures returning to
near normal along with increasing chances for monsoon storms once
again. Coastal flooding will impact beaches through Tuesday with
evening high tides exceeding 7 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Similar to last night, high clouds and scattered convection
associated with a new moisture surge are currently situated over
southern AZ and northern Mexico. High resolution models are in
agreement that this will provide the forcing and mid-level
moisture necessary for scattered showers and thunderstorms
(30-60% chance) over the mountains and High Desert this afternoon.
However, timing is essential as we saw today. An early onset of
high clouds over the region may limit daytime heating and reduce
thunderstorm potential, though this outcome appears less likely
today. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and small hail will be possible
with any storms that develop. Rain rates may reach up to 0.5"/hr
for higher elevations. There is a slight chance (10-15%) for a
storm to stray into the eastern valleys or low desert.

An upper ridge currently over the High Plains and intermountain
west will build into the region for the middle of the week. This
will act to warm temperatures and limit mid-level moisture
starting Tuesday. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible
along mountain ridges Tuesday through Thursday, but chances will
be slim (15-25%). The ridge peaks in strength Wednesday, with 500
mb heights peaking around 593-594 dm over Southern California.
Widespread moderate HeatRisk is expected below 6000 feet elevation
Tuesday through Thursday with major HeatRisk expected through
much of the coastal basin and locally into the lower deserts on
Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty in exactly how hot
temperatures will get, but current forecast highs on Wednesday
range from the 80s for coastal areas and mountains above 6000 ft
to 110-114 in the lower deserts. 100s expected for the Inland
Empire, High Desert and eastern San Diego Valleys and 90s for the
western valleys and lower elevations of the mountains.
Additionally, humid conditions are expected along with low
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. There will be
an increased risk for heat-related illness for vulnerable
populations and anyone spending extended periods of time outdoors.

The ridge retreats back to the east late this week, allowing
temperatures to return to near or slightly below average from
Friday through the weekend. Additionally, southeasterly flow is
expected to return along with increased mid-level moisture. This
should increase chances for monsoon-related convection once again.
However, as with any monsoon setup, coverage and location of
thunderstorms are highly uncertain at the moment as this is
dependent on the timing and location of any passing upper waves.
At the very least, an uptick in activity over the mountains
appears likely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
140430Z....Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds developing along the
coast after 08Z with bases 900-1200 ft MSL. There is a 40-60% chance
of CIGS at KCRQ and KSAN 09-17Z, and a 30-40% chance at KSNA 10-15Z.
Low clouds clearing by 18Z. There is a 10-15% chance of
showers moving off the mountains into the far inland valleys Monday
afternoon, ending by Monday evening. Coverage of low clouds Monday
night will be much patchier with low confidence in timing of onset
of any CIGS. Otherwise variable mid and high cloud cover at/above
10,000 ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...There is a 25-50% chance of thunderstorms over
the mountains and high desert between 18Z and 02Z Monday afternoon
and evening. CB bases near 15,000 ft MSL with tops to 35,000 ft MSL.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing reduced visibility in RA
and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise variable mid and high cloud cover
at/above 10,000 ft MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Astronomical high tides peaking 7.0-7.5 ft each day through Tuesday.
High tides combine with a modest south swell (3 ft swell at 13-15
seconds from 190 degrees) to generate surf of 3-5 ft for south-
facing beaches and 2-4 ft elsewhere. This will produce areas of
coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots,
and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. Highest tides
each evening will generally occur between 8 and 10 PM. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect through Tuesday evening and
contains further details. There will be an increased risk of rip
currents through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
     for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-
     Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-
     San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland
     Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
     Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS