Grover Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS66 KLOX 042114
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
214 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/201 PM.

Cloudy and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday, with
increasing chances of mostly light rain. Warming and drying to
follow Wednesday through the next weekend, with high temperatures
approaching 90 degrees in some areas by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...04/209 PM.

An upper level low, currently centered just south of Monterey,
will slowly move to the southeast and into Arizona by late
Tuesday. As this colder airmass moves overhead, it will continue
to destabilize the atmosphere. This will make showers possible,
but without much mositure (precipitable water readings around 0.8
inches), most shower activity will be limited in terms of
coverage and intensity. As such, much of the area will likely not
see any precipitation between now and Tuesday, but some will and
that is especially true in the mountains (btw, snow levels are
6,000+ feet). High resolution models continue to show increased
activity forming tonight over the LA/Orange County border, and a
cell or two looks rather healthy. So considering all of this, rain
impacts will overall be minimal to none, but there is a low risk
of isolated minor road flooding and traffic issues. The potential
for anything more significant beyond that is not zero, but pretty
close to zero. Breezier than usual onshore winds are also likely
through Tuesday over most areas. The Antelope Valley looks the
windiest and the low-end Wind Advisory remains in effect, but
might need to be cancelled early as winds so far have been a step
under Advisory levels.

With the cold airmass in place, temperatures will remain 10 to 20
degrees below normal through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s common.

Big changes coming Wednesday through Thursday. Low pressure aloft
will be quickly replaced with building high pressure, as 500
millibar heights go from 560 decameters on Tuesday to 580
decameters on Thursday. Meanwhile, onshore pressure gradients will
weaken with light offshore flow forming Thursday morning. This has
all the ingredients for a sharp warm up, with high temperatures
likely jumping 15 to 20 degrees from Tuesday to Thursday when mid
70s to mid 80s will be common. The marine inversion should
reestablish itself around Thursday to a more traditional height,
and there are some signals of a weak coastal eddy. Coastal low
clouds and fog will likely be in the area as a result, which will
moderate the warming near the coast. Very unsure however exact
what areas will be in the May Gray.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...04/213 PM.

High confidence in high pressure aloft continuing its building
over the region into early next week. At this point, 500 millibar
heights peak Monday or Tuesday of next week around 588 decameters.
At the very least, this means that mountains and deserts will
continue to warm Friday through Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s
to mid 90s by Sunday or Monday all but a certainty at this point.
The coastal and valley areas however will be tricky. There is a
fair spread in the onshore and north-to-south gradients, between
moderate onshore and moderate offshore. The offshore scenario
would bring high 90s to the coastal valleys, while the onshore
scenario would keep highs in the high 80s. Climatology would favor
the onshore scenario. Our official forecast is fairly
conservative and pretty much going down the middle between the two
scenarios, which seems like a good way to go this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1838Z.

At 1817Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to 7000 ft.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Wind speeds/gusts may be off by 5 kt
at times during peak winds at all sites. There is a 20-30 percent
chc -SHRA along with a 5 percent chc of a -TSRA from 22Z-04Z.
Brief MVFR cigs will be possible at anytime through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30 percent
chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z. High confidence that any east wind
component with be AOB 6kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20 percent
chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/211 PM.

Across the nearshore waters inside the SoCal Bight, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) west winds are likely Tuesday afternoon and
evening, followed by a chance (30-40% chance) Wednesday and
Thursday nights, mainly in the Santa Barbara Channel.

Nearshore along the Central Coast there is a 40-60% chance for
SCA NW winds Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with a 30-40% chance
of SCA conds Thursday afternoon and night.

For the outer waters, SCA NW winds are likely (50-70% chance) on
Tuesday for the waters near Point Conception to the northern
Channel Islands, possibly extending south to San Nicolas island.
Winds will increase again from the NW Wednesday night (for PZZ676)
into Thursday for the remaining outer zones through Thursday
night. Stronger winds will be possible Friday into the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Ciliberti/RS
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox