Carlotta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

330
FXUS66 KEKA 020920
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
120 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cold temperatures this morning for the inland valleys
with daytime temperatures mild for the season. Dry conditions will
prevail with pleasant effects, similar to previous patterns with
ridging in place.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The effects of a dry cold air mass will be felt
overnight into Monday morning. A maritime polar (mP) air mass will
be advecting colder air mostly to the north of our CWA, while the
resilient ridging pattern blocks most of the effects, 850mb and
surface pressure maps show some of the flow wrapping around the
ridge towards our CWA. Low temperatures are expected in the Trinity,
Mendocino, and Lake county valleys. Model soundings show cold
surface temps with a decoupled inversion/warmer aloft, which is
indicative of a stable profile. Deterministic models have
temperatures a few degrees warmer than than the National Blend.
Decoupled valleys have been observed a few degrees cooler and our
forecasts reflect the trend. Some of the cooler areas like Covelo
and Hayfork could get as low as 19-20F. Weaverville as low as the
mid 20`s and Ruth in the upper 20`s overnight into Monday. Tuesday
morning`s low temps will be a few degrees warmer for these locations
with a similar set up.

High pressure aloft will build over the West Coast overnight into
Monday. A Rex Block pattern is likely to form, with a major 500mb
height anomaly setting up over the region on Tuesday, resulting in
multiple days of dry and stable weather along warmer temperatures.
This will allow dry east-northeasterly winds developing across the
area. Moderate breezes are forecast to develop over the higher
terrain across the interior late tonight through Monday morning.
Areas of low clouds and fog are expected to develop across the
interior valleys tonight into Monday morning. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to be in the chilly side with freezing
minimums highly probable for valleys in Trinity and perhaps portions
of interior Humboldt, interior Mendocino and Lake counties Monday
morning.

Dry offshore flow (easterly winds), especially at night, will keep
the air very dry and reinforce the warming trend by mid week.
Highs are forecast to warm up into the lower to mid 70`s in the
interior next week. South-facing exposures and higher terrain stand
the best chance for highs in the 70`s, while valleys trapped under
the nocturnal inversion with night and morning fog may not warm up
even into the lower 60s, especially in Trinity and northern interior
Humboldt. Even the coastal areas are expected to warm up to mid 60s
to low 70`s before the sea breezes develop, especially on Wednesday.

Global Ensembles and deterministic model guidances are suggesting a
break- through in the westerlies or undercutting of the blocking
ridge Thursday night into Friday. The forecast becomes more
uncertain on Saturday, as some model guidance suggests dry weather
will continue while other guidance suggests precipitation will
return to the area. There is currently a 25-50% chance of rain will
return as early as late Saturday, and a 40-70% chance rain will
return as early as Sunday. Stand by for more details as the
situation develops. /ZVS /EYS



&&

.AVIATION...Clouds formed along much of the coastline during the evening and
expanded overnight with LIFR conditions in most locations.
Visibilities below airport minimums will be possible at times
through the morning. Farther inland some overnight fog will also
form with a possibility of a few hours of fog in the UKI area around
daybreak. This is not included in the TAF at this time with
probabilities less than 20 percent at UKI specifically. Clouds will
mix out across the region during the morning hours with VFR
returning at the TAF sites by late morning. Another round of low
clouds will be possible again Monday night, but light offshore flow
could reduce the coastal coverage. /RPA


&&

.MARINE...A westerly swell will continue to move through the waters
this morning with seas above 10 feet for most locations into Monday
afternoon. High pressure will build over the west coast this week
with light winds expected over the coastal waters. Seas will subside
on Tuesday into Wednesday with conditions likely to remain below
small craft. Another large westerly swell will build into the waters
Thursday into Friday with heights expected to be around 11-13 feet
at 15 seconds. With winds remaining light to moderate, short period
seas will remain small and westerly swells should be the dominating
wave through the forecast period. /RPA


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell train continues
today with heights between 10 and 13 feet with periods near 15
seconds. This swell may be too large for sneaker waves, though it
could still pose a threat to beachgoers. Breakers up to 16 feet for
west and northwest facing beaches are forecast based on average
beach slope profiles through Monday. Beachgoers venturing near or in
the surf zone tonight or early Monday morning should remain
vigilant. Avoid rocks, jetties and steep beaches. Another large
swell may bring slight sneaker wave threat Thursday into Friday. /RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png