Biola, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS65 KPSR 020553
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1053 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm activity will gradually come to an end
  from west to east by this evening. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect for much of central and eastern Arizona through early
  Monday morning.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening, mostly east of the Colorado River, with
  the main threat being damaging winds.

- Conditions will quickly improve by daybreak Monday and remain
  dry through the week, along with daytime temperatures slowly
  warming closer to, albeit still below, daily normals through
  middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The widespread, long duration rainfall event panned out pretty
much as anticipated with around 0.50"-1.50" of rain accumulating
across the lower deserts and upwards of 1.00-3.00"+ across the
higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. This has led to a
sizable hydrological response as area rivers and washes are
flowing with some area rivers now reaching flood stage. Several
Flood Warnings are in effect and will likely be extended through
Monday as runoff continues to impact low lying areas. Please
continue to heed any road closures and avoid driving through low
water crossings.

Latest visible satellite imagery and area radars show stratiform
rainfall coming to an end across southcentral AZ with a clearing
line of cirrus now progressing through the Phoenix Metro area. As
skies continue to clear, latest mesoanalysis indicates SB CAPE
values rising to around 500-1000 J/kg across southwest AZ and
western Maricopa County. There is also a sfc frontal boundary
which is beginning to enter SE California and will continue to
push ewd through this evening resulting in a wind shift from
southerly to westerly. Due to clearing over the region, winds are
now becoming gusty as strong winds aloft are mixing down to the
sfc. Expect gusts around 20-30 mph to become common over the next
several hours with a few gusts exceeding 35 mph possible. High-res
model guidance continues to indicate a final line of showers and
even a few thunderstorms developing across southcentral AZ around
00Z. Any storm that does develop will pose more of a flash
flooding risk with higher rain rates anticipated. There will be a
jet maximum passing over the area, leading to effective bulk shear
up to 50 kts. There will be fairly strong 925-850mb winds in
south-central AZ, up around 40-50 kts, and any shower or storm
that develops could mix down these stronger winds to the surface.
There is also a non-zero chance of a brief tornado in south-
central AZ with sfc-1km SRH up to 100- 150 m2/s2. As the line of
showers and storms pushes east of the area later this evening, the
threat of severe weather and flooding will finally come to an
end.

By sunrise Monday, the threat of rain will come to an end and winds
will die down as the trough axis pushes east of the state and much
drier air is ushered in. PWATs are forecast to quickly drop to
around 0.4-0.6" by sunrise Monday. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out
Monday morning in sheltered valley locations, but dry air
entrainment into the surface layer may preclude any formation. As
mentioned already, runoff and elevated flow in many of the major
waterways across south-central AZ is likely to continue through
Monday. Temperatures the next couple of days will remain cool, with
highs around 6-10 degrees below normal, mostly in the upper-60s to
middle-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through the middle of the upcoming work week, following the
departure of this dynamic weekend system, we can expect dry
conditions, and transient upper level ridging, resulting in
temperatures slowly warming closer to seasonal levels (despite
daytime highs likely remaining a few degrees below the daily
normals). By late week, ensembles diverge with respect to another
disturbance possibly moving through the area, but guidance seem
to be trending toward a relatively weak transient upper
low/positively tilted shortwave that is then followed by more
ridging by the end of next weekend. Regardless of the outcome,
fairly benign conditions seem to be the most likely outcome. The
trajectory of the late week system is not favorable for rain
chances, with its residence time too short for better quality
moisture to be pulled into the area, and if it remains an open
wave, its positive tilt does not bode well for providing upper
level support for precipitation. NBM PoPs with the latest forecast
have fallen to 10% or less Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;

VFR CIGs and -SHRA will shift east of the Phoenix airspace and
decline in coverage over the next few hours. FEW-SCT midlevel
decks may persist into Monday afternoon, but CIGs are not expected
to return for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will favor a
westerly component through at least Monday afternoon, however,
several hours of light speeds (AOB 5 kts) and variability may
prevail Monday morning into the early afternoon. A more typical
easterly diurnal wind shift is then anticipated Monday evening
under mostly clear skies.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours
under mostly clear skies. Winds will favor W for at least the next
few hours, then shift NW/N Monday morning. Speeds are expected to
remain AOB 10 kts for the most part, however, some gusts into the
mid teens cannot be ruled out at KBLH Monday afternoon. Extended
periods of light (AOB 6 kts) and VRB winds are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across the area today with
the highest rainfall totals expected in the high terrain north
and east of Phoenix. Rainfall will become more isolated this
afternoon and evening, with potential for isolated thunderstorms
as well. Gusty SW winds are also expected this afternoon and
evening, with peak gusts up to 30-40 mph possible in the lower
deserts of south-central AZ to 40-50 mph at the highest elevations
east of Phoenix. Any thunderstorm may also produce locally strong
to severe wind gusts. Minimum humidities will range between
55-80% areawide today and overnight maximum humidities up to
80-100%. Notably drier conditions are expected Monday through the
rest of the week, but minimum humidities will still remain around
30-45% each day as temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal. Winds for much of the rest of this week will return to a
more typical diurnal pattern with light speeds and modest
afternoon upslope gustiness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch until 5 AM MST Monday for AZZ534-537>563.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict/Salerno
LONG TERM...Benedict/Whittock
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict