Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

 - Dry conditions remain in place for today across the region.

 - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will return to the area
   late Tuesday and through the day Wednesday.

 - Cooler temperatures on Thursday, followed by a warming trend
   into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

We remain under the influence of a very weak upper-level ridge
today, some might even call it "pseudo-zonal flow", which has
helped produce the mostly sunny skies over the past few days.
While this feature will remain in control through tomorrow, there
will be a weak short-wave trough move through the central CONUS
that could bring some showers or thunderstorms very late this
evening and into the early overnight hours across our far northern
zones. While models are in disagreement about this, there was
enough for me to at least deviate from the NBM and add some PoPs
across our northern zones from 05/03z to 05/09z. Meanwhile, a
closed low will be moving inland over central California today
that will gradually push through the Rocky Mountain region and
into the Central Plains by Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold
front is currently pushing through the central CONUS and will
begin to move into our region from the north by Tuesday afternoon
and into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should increase
along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area during the day Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening,
especially for areas near and north of the I-30 corridor where a
Slight Risk has been placed by SPC. As the cold front moves
through the area on Wednesday, this Slight Risk will shift to
areas near and south of the I-30 corridor and will encompass the
rest of the area. Models indicate that storms could get fired up
as early as 06/00z across our northwest zones and might not clear
our southeast zones till 07/12z, which is slower than earlier
model runs. This threat will be very conditional for our area, and
this is shown by the difference in coverage that the short range
vs long range models are showing. Dry conditions then return to
the area following the exit of the aforementioned convection and
cooler temperatures will be in place for Thursday before a warming
trend commences on Friday and into the weekend. Our next decent
chance for widespread convection looks to be Saturday night into
Sunday, but models are still in great disagreement about that.
/33/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with SW wind 10-20KT with some
higher gusts. Gradient will remain overnight with WS020/20040KT for
the heart of our region. We are going to see MVFR cigs arriving 09-
12Z and through 17Z with no convection early, but filtering in from
W/SW well after sunset. Fropa will be late aftn/into the evening on
Wednesday, so look for ongoing convection overnight keeping
VCSH/VCTS in place through the night into Thursday as the boundary
stalls a bit until midday on Thursday veering wind from NW to N/NE.
/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  85  71  82 /   0  10  20  70
MLU  63  86  70  84 /   0  10  20  80
DEQ  63  83  59  73 /  20  20  60  60
TXK  67  85  66  77 /  10  10  50  70
ELD  62  84  64  76 /  10  10  40  80
TYR  68  85  70  81 /   0  10  30  60
GGG  66  85  70  82 /   0  10  20  70
LFK  66  85  72  86 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24