Forrest City, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS64 KMEG 042337
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Strong southerly winds will produce gusts up to 45 mph on Monday
  afternoon, prompting a Wind Advisory for parts of northeast
  Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is
  expected late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with
  damaging winds and hail being the primary hazards.

- Flash flooding and damaging winds are the main threat on
  Wednesday, especially south of the I-40 corridor. Cooler and
  drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The latest surface analysis places the Mid-South squarely between
a 1018mb high over the FL Panhandle with a 1001mb low over NE
Kansas. Strong southerly winds will persist throughout much of
the day as the pressure gradient remains between 6 and 7 mb from
NE Arkansas to NE Mississippi. A wind advisory remains in effect
through 7PM CDT tonight for winds between 20 and 25 mph with
gusts as high as 45 mph across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel.

The weather pattern awakens overnight as an approaching and
decaying MCS enters the region from the NW. Instability and
moisture will be limited, with LREF MUCAPE values between 200 to
400 J/kg along and west of the Mississippi River. Convective
coverage will be mainly scattered with mostly showers and
isolated thunderstorms through late morning across the region.
Behind the morning storms, moderate moisture advection will cause
dewpoints to swell into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon.

Synoptic model guidance is consistent with upper level split flow
consolidating into a phasing and deepening trough over the Four
Corners Region late Tuesday night. Downstream, a couple of
shortwaves will translate through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
These waves will help push a synoptic front down into the Mid-
South region from the north just as the LLJ ramps up. The
parameter space is plenty sheared with HREF mean bulk shear
between 50 and 60 kts,  mean 0-1km SRH between 200 and 250 m2/s2,
with a wide range of instability evident by 25-75th percentile
ranging from 100-750 SBCAPE. The HRRR member remains the most
aggressive with respect to instability with 750-1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE along and north of I-40 into the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Hi-res guidance suggests that a broken line will enter
northeast Arkansas late Tuesday night and evolve into a messy
convective mode. Clockwise-curved hodographs will support a
variety of storm modes including: multicellular structures,
bowing segments, with a low chance for some discrete activity out
ahead of the front. We collaborated with SPC to expand the Slight
Risk (2/5) further east to include W Tennessee and NW
Mississippi. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms
appears to be focused between 9PM Tuesday and 3AM Wednesday.
Trailing showers and convection will continue into the early
morning hours on Wednesday.

Wednesday`s severe thunderstorm forecast is contingent on where
the synoptic front stalls early Wednesday morning. HREF guidance
suggests that it will stall along or just south of the I-
40 corridor with the environment recovering by late morning,
mainly south of I-40. Mean 850mb flow will become nearly parallel
to the front suggesting a Maddox frontal boundary flash flooding
setup. PWATs will approach the 99th percentile near the front
with much of north Mississippi in AOA the 90th percentile. The
mean QPF will range between 1 and 2 inches, with higher maximums
where any storms continually train. With a positively-tilted
trough approaching from the northwest, a southward advancing
front, and deep layer flow nearly parallel to the front, a mostly
linear storm mode is expected. Given the slow-moving advancement
of the front and the nearly parallel steering flow, the main
threats are expected to be flash flooding with damaging winds
through late afternoon. The front will finally clear the area
late Wednesday night with cooler and drier air filtering in
behind.

Surface high pressure will remain in place through late week with
dry northwest flow aloft. Below normal temperatures are expected
Thursday and Friday with a return to normal temperatures by this
weekend.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions continue through at least 12Z Tuesday. A decaying
MCS will bring about the first of two rounds of precip this
period, along with some intermittently reduced ceilings. The first
round of SHRAs has very low confidence for thunder Tuesday
morning, but will be monitored for the next issuances. We`ll get a
brief break in the afternoon before a shortwave moves across and
introduces the next round of precip. This second round after 00Z
Wed is looking much more organized, thus TSRA will likely need to
be added at all sites with the 06Z TAFs (except maybe not TUP
yet). Winds look fairly consistent from the S/SW around 10-12 kts
with gusts around 20 kts. Guidance is really tanking ceilings at
JBR to IFR, but the consensus is that the other sites will hover
in the MVFR/VFR range for most of Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

There are minimal fire weather concerns over the next 7 days.
Humidity and widespread wetting rain chances will occur Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the entire Mid-South.
Cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday and
Friday. There is a low to medium chance that minimum relative
humidity values dip below 40% on Friday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CAD