El Dorado, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS64 KSHV 190310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Widespread rain chances will return tomorrow and over the upcoming
   weekend, as a few disturbances move across the region.

 - A flooding threat could also develop Friday into the upcoming
   weekend, along with a chance for strong to severe weather.
   Damaging winds look to be the primary threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Just a quick addition to the evening pops with some light showers
lingering over deep east TX, Toledo Bend Country and central LA.

/24/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Arthur continues to spin across
the Ark-La-Miss region this afternoon. A strong convergence band
in association with Arthur developed just south of our forecast
zones today across East-Central Louisiana. Over 20" of rainfall
has been reported in some portions of Avoyelles Parish, where most
of the convected bands have trained today. Short-term progs and
radar trends are starting to push this band northward, which could
get precipitation at Grant, LaSalle, and southern Natchitoches
parishes this afternoon and evening, before the remnants of Arthur
slowly shift eastward out the region tonight. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for Grant, LaSalle, and Caldwell parishes
through 7 pm this evening.

Overnight, our attention will shift to our next weather maker for
Friday into the upcoming weekend. Upper ridging is expected to develop
across the Southwest CONUS into western Texas. This will result
in the flow aloft becoming northwesterly, as a long wave trough
pushes southward into the region just before daybreak. A potent
short-wave will develop along the flow across North Texas and
Southern Oklahoma. In fact, progs have this short-wave trough
closing off. This will slow the ESE movement of the trough,
keeping widespread rain chances over the area through Saturday
evening, as the short-wave finally exits North Louisiana. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area with a
Marginal Risk on Friday, as damaging winds can`t be ruled out with
this convection. Rain chances will remain in the forecast on
Sunday, as another disturbance is expected to move across the
region.

The aforementioned upper ridge will flatten out and expand eastward
into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley for the first
of next week. The long-wave trough over the region will shift
north of I-20, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Rain chances
will remain for areas along and north of I-20 Monday and Tuesday
as additional disturbances move along the flow. Can`t rule out
the need for additional heat advisories during this period, mainly
south of I-20, where the the lack of rainfall will allow
temperatures to climb into the mid 90s. The ridge will retrograde
back into the SW CONUS during the middle of next week, bringing a
return of northwest flow with embedded disturbances, and
widespread rain chances. One thing of note, with all of the recent
and expected rainfall, drought conditions should improve across
the area. However, soils are starting to become saturated, which
could result in flooding concerns going forward. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For the 19/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions continue this evening,
but low stratus is expected to return once again overnight into
Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will
also bring increasing convection throughout much of Friday so have
continued this trend later in the period. Some patchy fog will be
possible around daybreak, and MVFR/IFR cigs are likely to persist
throughout the morning before slowly improving closer to midday
into the afternoon. However, intermittent lower cigs/vsbys cannot
be ruled out in the afternoon with convection expected to increase
along with higher wind speeds/gusts as southerly winds veer N/NE
with fropa.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Spotter activation could be needed on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  90  76  88 /  40  60  60  60
MLU  77  88  75  88 /  40  60  60  60
DEQ  74  86  71  86 /  30  60  60  60
TXK  76  85  73  86 /  40  60  60  60
ELD  75  85  72  85 /  40  60  60  60
TYR  78  90  75  88 /  40  50  70  60
GGG  78  90  75  89 /  30  60  70  60
LFK  79  94  77  91 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19