Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

158
FXAK68 PAFC 041353
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Mon May 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fall weather will continue through the short term (and long
term...) as moisture and rain continues to stream north due to a
trough and surface low in the north Pacific south of Kodiak
Island. The surface low will move into the Gulf waters south of
Kodiak this afternoon before slowly making its way south of the
Sound on Wednesday. Aloft, warmer air is pushing in with this
system, pushing snow levels much higher (2800-4000ft) than they
were last week. A trough over northwest Alaska will attempt to
phase with the approaching Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday, which will
wrap colder air aloft back into the area, lowering snow levels
back to around 2000ft.

The light rain that has been observed all night from Homer north
into the Mat-Su Valleys will slowly begin to downslope out through
this afternoon/evening as the low approaches and winds increase
out of the east across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains with a
building coastal ridge. Gap winds will pick up across the Copper
and Mat Valley again today with the building coastal ridge, with
the Turnagain wind returning to Anchorage on Tuesday. While
conditions will remain on the cloudy side, there should be a break
in the rain from Kenai City north through Anchorage and into the
southern Mat-Su on Tuesday. As the upper trough from the
northwest moves in, instability will increase and bring a return
to showery conditions across Southcentral Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Expect nearly continuous precipitation along the Gulf
coast.

-CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure is comfortably parked over much of the Bering Sea
this morning and will be hanging around through the short term
forecast period. However, an arctic trough over northwestern
Alaska is dipping into the Yukon-Kuskokwim region while a North
Pacific low is tracking north toward Kodiak Island. Its cloud
shield and associated front is lifting across the Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay this morning with rainfall across Bristol Bay and
portions of the Alaska Peninsula. This front will continue to
lift to around the Kuskokwim Mountains by this afternoon. Some
precipitation is expected to spill over, but the challenge will be
with how far north it will spread. Precipitation is more likely
for communities south of the River and from around Aniak east,
whereas it will be less likely west of Bethel and north of the
Kuskokwim River. Northerly flow with cold air will prevail through
the Kuskokwim Delta and the eastern Bering Sea with snow chances
lingering around Unimak Island and west of Cold Bay.

As the North Pacific low continues to move north and the arctic
trough continues to dip south, the two features will interact and
winds will increase across the Kuskokwim Delta, eastern Bering
Sea, the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Associated cold
air advection with northerly flow will promote gusty gap winds
this afternoon from around Nikolski through the Alaska Peninsula
that will last through Tuesday. Precipitation will gradually
decrease Tuesday afternoon for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Valley. For midweek, the weather quiets down, but chances for rain
and snow showers return on Thursday as another arctic low looks
to drop into Southwest Alaska.

On the western side of the Bering Sea ridge, a front associated
with a low near Kamchatka will move into the western Bering and
Aleutians by Tuesday afternoon. It will attempt to push its way
east, bringing gale force winds (over 34 kts) and rainfall through
Wednesday, but the ridge will prevent much forward progress
(stalling out between Amchitka and Adak) and the system weakens
Wednesday. Weak troughing south of the Aleutian Chain though, will
keep winds breezy out of east across most of the Chain and
showers will remain likely for Adak and Atka through Thursday.

Rux

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term forecast continues to favor a ridge of high
pressure over the Bering Sea and a broad trough taking shape over
the Gulf of Alaska by the end of next week. Generally dry
conditions are forecast across Southwest Alaska and also the
Bering Sea, from Saint Lawrence Island to Dutch Harbor while high
pressure reigns. Across the western Bering yet another front is
forecast to push into the Aleutians Saturday and Sunday of next
week with increasing winds and showers. As mentioned,
Southcentral will remain under the influence of a broader trough
over the Gulf. Multiple waves of low pressure lifting through the
trough will keep the weather pattern unsettled, with rain chances
essentially lingering from Thursday of next week through the
weekend across Southcentral.

BL

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Steady rain will let up through the early afternoon as
southeasterly winds aloft increase, allowing ceilings to rise
from MVFR to VFR range. Southeast winds blowing out of the
Turnagain Arm could briefly clip the terminal for a short period
late this afternoon and evening, but expect winds to otherwise
stay mostly weak and northerly through the TAF period. Fog will
slowly lift out of the terminal this morning.

&&


$$