Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXAK67 PAJK 200555 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
955 PM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE...
Forecast remains largely on track this evening aside from minor
wind updates. Winds will remain light overnight, largely 5kts or
less. Some nice microclimate action going on tonight locally with
temperatures at the WFO office in the back of the Mendenhall
Valley currently a cool 46F, with temperatures near the airport
56F. Overall through tonight, intermittent periods of light rain
will continue with temperatures dipping down into the low 40s to
low 50s. Main concern will be development of lowered ceilings and
patchy dense fog, particularly across the southern panhandle.

AVIATION.../06z set of TAFs/
Highly variable conditions across the panhandle this evening, and
aviators should expect that pattern to continue for some of the
night. The arrival of another upper disturbance will invoke some
rain mainly held to the upper panhandle by Thursday morning.
Portions of the southern panhandle may be able to break out at
times Thursday afternoon/evening.

In aviation terms, for the overnight period, almost all sites in
the panhandle will experience some bobbing between flight
categories, though most will remain IFR/MVFR with ample moisture
and low cigs. Toward the morning, northern panhandle sites,
generally north of Frederick Sound, will find themselves continued
to be socked in IFR or LIFR with stronger rain and thick clouds
limiting both vsby and cigs.

As the upper disturbance is aiming its impacts towards the north,
southern panhandle locales could see some improvement with less
rain activity, and some brief breakouts as they saw earlier on
Wednesday.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 3:46 PM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the rest of
  the week, with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain,
  especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds
  across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the
  mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf
  and outer coastal waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...
Periods of light rain continue across the panhandle through the
rest of Wednesday as a weak front is broken up across the
panhandle. Onshore flow and a prominent marine layer is expected
to keep rain chances elevated along the outer gulf coast
overnight, with the potential for showers to reach communities
slightly inland like Gustavus and Angoon. This rain activity is
expected to remain mainly north of Sumner Strait before moving
southward overnight Thursday into Friday.

The timing of the next front has been adjusted quite a bit, with
rain in Yakutat being pushed back to about 4am on Thursday. Rain
will then make its way across the northern and central panhandle
through the day with the highest probabilities concentrated north
of Fredrick Sound. Thursday and Friday morning will bring the
heaviest rainfall with more consistent precipitation expected
through the day. The biggest uncertainty in this system arises in
the specific point-location rain accumulation totals. Over the
last 24 hours, QPF totals have been trending down ever so slightly
in Yakutat, indicating that there is still uncertainty in the
storm track and exact placement of the moisture plume. However,
confidence remains high that Thursday will bring the heaviest
rain in Yakutat, along with the timing of the front. Around 2-3
inches of rain is expected in Yakutat by Thursday around 10pm
Thursday.

By Thursday night into early Friday morning, heavier
precipitation is expected to reach the northern panhandle and is
likely to expand across the southern panhandle. Communities in the
Icy Strain corridor are likely to receive the heaviest rain while
the central and southern panhandle should expect light rain and
showers.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...
Active weather continues through the long term forecast as
multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak shortwave
moves into the panhandle through the end of the work week,
bringing light to moderate rainfall through Saturday. A stronger
low pressure system will then move into the panhandle Saturday
into Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday. There is
still some differences on where the location of this low will be
over the gulf, which may lead to slightly difference rain amounts.
Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an
inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for
the southern panhandle. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with
this system, with parts of the southern gulf only reaching up to
15 to 20 kts Sunday. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see
winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips
south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that
may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. This
should allow for winds in the inner channels to switch to a more
offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more
active through the second half of the week. If the northern
panhandle manages to clear out behind the low, sea breezes may
attempt to combat this through midday. Temperatures mostly stay
near average through the period in the mid to high 60s, but
keeping an eye on high EFIs starting to show up for the northern
panhandle Wednesday.

MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Even with an active pattern, the inside
channels remain on the calmer side. Winds will largely remain around
10 to 15 kts across the area with periods of slightly increased
winds, especially for far northern inner channels. A front pushes
into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Although strongest
winds will be over the northern gulf, Cross Sound and Lynn Canal
area are also likely to see increased winds near 15 to 20 kts. Inner
channel winds will continue to see a similar pattern as another
system moves into the area Friday. There is a chance that N Lynn
Canal will see slightly stronger winds to 25 kts on Friday as an
increased pressure gradient develops over the afternoon and evening
hours. Otherwise winds will continue to generally remain at or below
15 kts through the inner channels with seas around 3 ft or less.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Strongest winds in the area will
remain focused on the northern gulf. Tonight, a front will allow for
increased southeasterly winds around 20 to 30 kts. Similarly
increased significant waves will remain around 6 to 8 ft over these
north gulf coast areas. Strongest winds are anticipated for early
Thursday before winds and seas begin to diminish and subside. The
gulf will see more of a break then on Friday with southwesterly
winds around 10 to 15 kts before another low pressure system arrives
Saturday. Even as the this low moves into the gulf on Saturday,
winds will remain near 15 to 20 kts but become southeasterly once
again. Winds are more likely to remain on the lighter end since this
low pressure system is further offshore. If the location of the low
changes, and slightly intensifies, stronger winds could occur
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...EAB

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