Mountain Brook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

010
FXUS64 KBMX 182341
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of
  rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall
  totals of 2 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts possible
  through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for
  severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the
  area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

Widespread rainfall is occurring across much of the area this
afternoon and will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
The remnants of Arthur should exit eastward later this evening.
Until then we will continue to have some gusty winds in any
stronger convection bands. Also, weak spin-up tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. While lightning coverage is lower, isolated embedded
thunderstorms remain possible.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves
into the area and stalls. This will help to modify the tropical
airmass with more thunder expected. A few marginally severe
storms, with winds the main concern, may occur as well with just
frontal forcing to assist. The front is expected to stall
somewhere across the midsection of the area on Saturday. Guidance
still indicates higher QPF as a result of rain chances sticking
around for the weekend. Our flood watch may need to be extended
into Saturday if this trend continues. By Sunday, weak upper flow
will allow for the stalled boundary to push back northward with
yet again more onshore flow. Temperatures will slowly creep back
up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating
will contribute to diurnal convection for Sunday into Monday.
Extended guidance has a low to medium chance of yet another front
moving into the Deep South by the end of the extended Tuesday
into Wednesday. This system too has a decent chance of stalling
with zonal to west-northwest upper flow to only support meager
advancement across Alabama by the middle of next week, and it
will keep rain chances around.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

TAF conditions remain complex across Central Alabama. The low-
pressure circulation has cleared TCL and is now moving through
BHM and EET. Rain will persist at BHM and EET for one more hour
before ending for the remainder of the night. Wet conditions will
continue across MGM and AUO for several more hours, with
redevelopment expected overnight. Prob30s remain in effect for
these sites. Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR/LIFR between
01z and 04z, persisting through 14z to 16z. Additional showers
and storms are expected area-wide this afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet
pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will
keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period.
Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  86  65  85 /  70  40  10  30
Anniston    71  85  67  85 /  90  60  20  40
Birmingham  71  86  68  85 /  50  60  20  60
Tuscaloosa  72  86  71  85 /  50  70  50  70
Calera      71  88  69  87 /  70  70  40  70
Auburn      72  83  71  85 / 100  70  50  60
Montgomery  72  84  71  84 / 100  80  60  80
Troy        72  84  71  85 / 100  80  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16