Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS64 KBMX 151112
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
512 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025

 - Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast through this
   morning with minimum wind chill values from 6 degrees north to
   15 degrees south. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
   until 7 am Monday morning.

 - Another cold night is expected tonight with lows in the upper
   teens to lower 20s, but winds will be calm.

 - Expect dry conditions to persist through Wednesday followed by
   shower chances increasing on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025

An amplified pattern persists over much of the country with broad
ridging over the Four Corners states while deep troughing was
present over much of the Eastern Seaboard. A strong northwest flow
aloft was present over the forecast area with strong 1040 mb
surface high pressure analyzed across the Southern Ohio River
Valley Region. Under mostly clear skies and with gradually
relaxing northerly winds, very cold temperatures will persist
through mid-morning with dangerous wind chills in the single
digits north and in the mid teens south.

Today.

Residual troughing will persist over much of the Northeast
portion of the country today while broad ridging continues to
build over the Intermountain West. This flow pattern will continue
to support a northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. Surface
high pressure will move southeast and become more elongated in
form as it will extend from South Texas northeast into the
Carolinas by this afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will
continue to ease through the morning hours with winds becoming
more easterly by late morning and then take on a more southerly
component this afternoon from 5-10 mph. Dry conditions will
persist under mostly sunny skies with highs from around 40 far
north to the mid 40s south.

Tonight through Wednesday night.

The northwest flow pattern aloft will transition to more of a
zonal flow pattern during the day Tuesday and persist into
Wednesday. A mid-level trough will develop and deepen over the
Northern and Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday and
approach the area from the west while shortwave ridging migrates
to the east of the forecast area. Surface high pressure will
initially continue to encompass much of the Deep South Region,
then gradually consolidate across the Carolinas late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Expect some high clouds streaming over the area Tuesday
followed by more clouds arriving later in the day Wednesday but
dry conditions look to persist areawide through late Wednesday.
Lows will range from the upper teens northeast to the low 20s
elsewhere tonight followed by highs on Tuesday from near 50 far
north to the mid 50s south. Lows Wednesday will range from the
upper 20s far northeast to the lower 30s west. Highs Wednesday
will range from the mid 50s far north to readings in the low 60s
south and central. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid
30s northeast to the mid 40s west.

Thursday through Friday.

A mid-level trough will move east over the region overnight
Wednesday into Thursday, resulting in increasing chances for
showers Thursday morning with scattered to numerous showers
northwest with few to isolated chances southeast. This activity
will continue to advance eastward with scattered to numerous
shower activity across much of the area Thursday evening before
clearing the area overnight Thursday night as another trough
quickly dives southeast from over the Northern Plains and deepens
over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley Regions Friday night.
There will be enough instability to support some thunderstorm
activity during this time frame with better potential across the
southern half of the forecast area. Highs Thursday will range from
around 60 far northwest to near 70 far south. Cooler air will
move in from the northwest behind the back edge of the showers
early Friday morning, resulting in lows around freezing far
northwest to readings in the mid 40s southeast. Highs Friday will
range from the upper 40s northwest to near 60 far southeast.

Saturday through Monday.

A zonal flow pattern will return over the weekend with dry
conditions expected Saturday. Available global modeling depicts a
trough skirting the region to the north, primarily affecting the
Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday through Monday but its influence
may be enough to support isolated shower activity across the
northern portions of the area Sunday and Monday, though confidence
remains low at this time. Lows Saturday morning will be in the
upper 20s northeast to the mid 30s south, followed by highs from
the upper 50s north and east to the mid 60s far south and
southwest. Lows Sunday morning will range from the lower 40s east
to around 50 west with highs from the low 60s far north to the low
70s far south. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid 40s
far northeast to the lower 50s south and southwest, followed by
highs from the mid 60s north to around 70 far south.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond with
light and variable winds.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will persist across the area through midweek.
Expect 20 foot winds to decrease below 10 mph with surface winds
becoming easterly through the morning with speeds decreasing into
the 6-12 mph range then become more southerly later today with
speeds from 5-10 mph. Minimum RH values will dip into the lower 20
percent range this afternoon. Southerly winds from 4-8 mph are
forecast Tuesday with minimum RH values from the mid to upper 20s
east to the mid 30s west. Dry conditions will persist through
Wednesday before rain chances increase through the day on
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  17  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    45  21  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  43  24  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  22  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      47  21  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      45  25  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  45  20  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        46  21  54  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...32/JDavis