South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS65 KREV 231935
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1235 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warmth continues with afternoon temperatures remaining near 20
  degrees above seasonal averages through midweek, with daily
  records being challenged.

* Afternoon breezes will increase through Wednesday, with choppy
  lake waters and travel impacts possible.

* Dry and warm conditions will continue through at least the end of
  March with a potential shift toward a cooler and wetter weather
  pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The continued heat is currently being driven by an unusually robust
upper-level ridge and attendant surface high pressure, with
upper air analysis revealing 500 hPa height anomalies over Reno
reaching a staggering +200 to +225 meters above normal. Afternoon
highs through Wednesday will stay approximately 20 degrees above
seasonal norms, reaching the low-to-mid 80s for western Nevada
valleys and the upper 60s to low 70s for Sierra valleys. A
widespread swath of cirrus and lenticulars may provide some
intermittent shading today, which could cool afternoon highs a few
degrees.

Lower-level mixing will facilitate momentum transfer aloft to the
surface as zonal flow strengthens across the region through midweek.
Latest high-resolution model guidance shows 700 hPa winds peaking
between 45-55 kts today over the Sierra crest, which is stronger
than previous projections. While todays thicker cloud cover may
initially inhibit full vertical mixing into the valleys, west to
southwest wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible today. Surface
pressure gradients will strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday as skies
clear, with southwest wind gusts persisting 25-35 mph on Tuesday.
This gradient will be at its tightest on Wednesday as a shortwave
trough passing through the Pacific Northwest drags a dry cold front
into northwest Nevada, producing southwest winds of 10 to 25 mph and
widespread gusts of 30-40 mph that will lead to choppy conditions on
area lakes and potential aviation turbulence.

A temporary 10-15 degree cooling trend will arrive on Thursday
behind the dry cold front, though ridging is expected to rebuild
quickly for another warm-up through the final weekend of March.
Looking toward the start of April, ensemble guidance suggests a
potential shift toward a cooler and wetter pattern, though
confidence in the timing and position of storms remains low.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

Flight conditions will remain solidly VFR areawide over at least the
next week. Expect a steady stream of high-altitude cirrus, with
mountain wave development becoming increasingly prominent through
the remainder of the day.

Aloft at FL100, west-southwest winds will peak 45-55kt today,
settling slightly into the 35-45 kt range Tuesday and Wednesday.
This set up will drive mountain wave turbulence and localized LLWS
in the lee of the Sierra, specifically during the peak mixing
window of 18-03Z.

Surface winds will increase each afternoon today through Wednesday,
with gusts of 25-30kt as these FL100 winds mix to the surface.

-Johnston

&&

.CLIMATE...

The heat hits keep on coming for both Reno and South Lake Tahoe.
While the monthly records set last week won`t be challenged this
week, more daily record highs are within reach at both sites today
through Wednesday, and also by the final weekend of March.

* New March monthly record high at Reno:

- Reno, NV: New record of 88F on Friday March 20. The previous
   monthly record was 86F on 3/18/2026.

* New March monthly record high at South Lake Tahoe:

- South Lake Tahoe, CA: New record of 76F on Wednesday March 18.
   The previous monthly record was 71F on 3/30/2015.

New daily record high temperatures and the previous daily record
high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date       Reno NV        South Lake Tahoe CA
----     ------------     -------------------
3/17     82F (old 78F in 2007)  69F (old 65F in 2007)
3/18     86F (old 77F in 1947)  76F (old 63F in 2004)
3/19     85F (old 77F in 1997)  72F (old 65F in 2015)
3/20     88F (old 81F in 2004)  72F (old 68F in 1997)
3/21     81F (old 80F in 2004)  70F (old 68F in 1997)
3/22     77F (tied with 2004)69F (old 65F in 2004)
3/23 77F - 202266F - 2022
3/24     80F - 202265F - 2022
3/25 81F - 202267F - 2022
-------------------------------------------------------

New daily record warmest low temperatures and the previous daily
record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date       Reno NV        South Lake Tahoe CA
----     ------------           -------------------
3/18     48F - 1904             37F - 2021
3/19     46F - 2013             38F - 2013
3/20     47F - 2013             35F - 2013
3/21     50F (old 46F in 2015)  38F - 1972
3/22 50F - 201240F - 2012
3/23 46F - 200040F - 1998
3/24 45F - 200640F - 1986
3/25 52F - 189338F - 2008

-------------------------------------------------------

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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