Sheboygan, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS63 KMKX 022350
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low snow chances (20%) for southwestern WI overnight. Better
  chances for any accumulation remain along and south of the
  WI/IL border.

- Milder end to the week with highs in the 30s Thursday and
  Friday.

- Chances for light snow and/or wintry mix (20-40%) possible
  later Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Flurries have tapered off across the region, with clearing
skies across central Wisconsin, lingering lake-effect low clouds
in Lake Michigan counties, and increasing upper level clouds in
southwestern Wisconsin as a clipper system moves in. Still
expecting mostly dry conditions due to a good deal of dry air
near the surface, but a few snow showers still may creep into
southwestern Wisconsin tonight. Expecting lows in the single
digits in central Wisconsin where clear skies prevail, and lows
in the low teens in areas of clouds.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

This afternoon through Tuesday night:

Southern WI will sit in upper-level northwesterly through the
afternoon with a few lingering flurries given the prevailing
stratus deck. However, latest satellite trends are showing
clouds clearing across southwestern WI and will gradually
spread east through the remainder of the afternoon and maybe a
few flurries lingering along the lakeshore early this evening.

Models continue to prog a mid-level shortwave trough to dig
down across the traverse the Upper Midwest overnight. A band of
700mb frontogenesis looks to clip far southwestern WI overnight
and with just enough moisture and lift for a period of light
snow. Still some models keep our CWA dry, thus will stick with
lower PoPs (20%) for now, but could see upping chances later
this evening once we have a better idea if it will develop north
of the WI/IL border. If any of this snow activity sneaks into
the area tonight, only would expect a dusting to potentially few
tenths of an inch of accumulation along and southwest of a line
from Lone Rock to Lake Geneva.

Otherwise, looking at a bit cooler for Tuesday as high pressure
builds across the region through midweek. Overnight lows
tonight will dip into the lower teens and single digits aided by
incoming cloud cover providing a bit of insulation. However,
skies are looking to clear for Tuesday and temps warm into the
upper teens to the mid 20s with even colder lows Tuesday night
in the single digits given the clear and calm conditions.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure and the chiller, but quieter conditions will
persist into Wednesday as high pressure meanders over WI before
finally kicking southeast overnight Wednesday. Southerly winds
return and low-level WAA will then settle into the region and
temps are looking to warm for the end of the week. There is an
increased potential for above freezing temps Thursday into
Friday. The NBM has 50-70% chance for Thursday and above 80%
chance for Friday to see highs above freezing, but the LREF
ensemble members are not as excited but still a 20-40% Thursday
and 40-70% chance on Friday. So overall the trend is favoring
an end of the week warm up.

Accompanying this warm up will be the next round of
precipitation as a swath of Pacific moisture pairs with a
clipper and treks across the Upper Great Lakes later Thursday.
Additional forcing from low-level WAA and frontogenesis will
support the increased precip chances (20- 40%). The main
question with this activity will be the precip type as milder
temps and timing may support snow to a wintry mix.

As the clipper and associated cold front swings through on
Friday, temps are progged to cool down later Friday into the
weekend closer to normal values as another Canadian high builds
into the region.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

An MVFR cloud deck lingers near Lake Michigan, expected to
slowly whittle away west to east tonight. Expecting high clouds
to move in elsewhere, with a few snow showers developing across
southwestern Wisconsin late tonight. Still expecting snow and
associated MVFR conditions to remain south of MSN, but chances
for JVL and ENW remain in place (~20 percent). All VFR
conditions are expected by Tuesday afternoon, with a scattered
deck around 2000 ft possible near Lake Michigan.

Light northwesterly to northerly winds overnight, remaining
light through Tuesday and Tuesday night under high pressure.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Northwesterly winds continue across the Lake this
afternoon/evening behind the cold front, but will gradually
weaken overnight into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the
region. Lighter, varying winds will continue through Wednesday
as high pressure meanders around Lake Michigan before finally
shifting southeast overnight into Thursday. Will see southerly
winds increase for Thursday as low pressure tracks into the
Hudson Bay region. This will then drag a cold front across Lake
Michigan later Thursday into Friday with increasing
northwesterly winds. There continues to be a potential for
gales on Friday. Then winds weaken into the weekend as another
high pressure builds into the region through the end of the
weekend.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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