Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS63 KMKX 020942
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing drizzle remains possible before dawn this
  morning. A few slick spots on untreated surfaces will be
  possible, especially towards south-central and southwestern
  WI.

- A weak clipper system may (approximately 20 percent chance)
  bring light snow to areas southwest of Madison and along the
  WI/IL state border this evening into tonight.

- Milder this week, with highs in the low to mid 20s through
  Wednesday, then 30s for Thursday and most of the area on
  Friday.

- Chances for light snow (25 to 45 percent) return Thursday PM
  into Friday AM as another clipper system passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 330 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today through Tuesday:

As seen on GOES Microphysics satellite imagery, the entire
state is engulfed in a low-stratus cloud deck early this
morning, with surface stations depicting a cold front slowly
progressing southeastward toward southern WI. Ahead of this
front in the predawn hours, we expect some areas of light
freezing drizzle to continue, mainly towards south-central and
southwestern WI (esp Janesville and Monroe). Some patchy
freezing drizzle and flurries will be possible elsewhere, but
not as widespread or impactful. A few slick spots on untreated
surfaces will be possible.

After sunrise this morning, we expect some dry air advection
behind the cold front (a light northwest breeze), bringing an
end to the drizzle / flurries. Low clouds will hang on though,
likely refusing to scatter out until the mid to late afternoon
today. Cold air advection holds temperatures to the 20s today,
diving into the single digits / low tens for an overnight low
tonight.

A 500mb shortwave trough passing south of the region this
evening into tonight will bring ~20% chances for light snow to
southwestern and far southern WI (towards the IL borderline).
The system will have dry air in the low levels to contend with
(much of the snow may evaporate), but if applicable we could be
looking at flurries or a small fraction of an inch in the
aforementioned area.

Highs in the low 20s are forecast into Tuesday as weak north
winds continue. The departing 500mb trough allows skies to clear
in a north to south manner early in the morning, with sunny
skies expected through the day.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 340 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Nwly flow aloft will continue during this period. Shortwave
troughs will pass through srn WI on Wed and again late Wed nt-
early Thu AM, but the air mass will remain too dry for
precipitation. At the surface, high pressure will remain in the
vicinity of srn WI through Wed nt. Below normal temps are
forecast.

An organized low pressure trough will then track sewd across
Ontario and the nrn to ern Great Lakes for Thu-Thu nt. The surface
trough will deepen with time thanks to a deep trough moving sewd
through Ontario and a lead shortwave trough across the Great
Lakes. Swly winds and low to mid level warm advection will boost
high temps into the 30s for Thu-Fri ahead of the trough and cold
front. Forecasting 20-40% chances for light snow mainly Thu nt but
cannot rule out a little mixed pcpn as well. The cold frontal
passage will follow on Fri with brisk nly winds and cold
advection. An early day high in the 30s is expected on Fri
followed by falling temps. An arctic air mass may return for the
weekend if the cold advection is strong enough. High pressure to
then follow for the weekend with relatively cold conditions
expected.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 330 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail predawn this morning, with
some patchy freezing drizzle activity noted towards south
central and southwestern Wisconsin at the moment, with
visibility dropouts to 2-4 SM. This activity should cease
towards dawn. Ceilings are expected to improve very slowly
after sunrise this morning, lifting and scattering to
predominantly VFR by the mid afternoon hours today.

A passing shortwave trough will bring ~20% chances for light
snow to KMSN, KJVL, and possibly KENW (southwestern WI and areas
towards the WI/IL borderline) this evening into tonight, though
the odds are too low for inclusion in TAFs at this time (the
system is centered well south of the region, and must contend
with dry air / evaporation at low levels). The associated mid
to high altitude (VFR) cloud ceilings from this system will
likely overspread the rest of the region through this time
period as well, clearing out in a north to south manner into
Tuesday morning.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 330 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A light southwest breeze continues predawn this morning, veering
northwest behind a cold front later this morning. Light to
moderate northwest winds are then expected to continue until late
in the work week when low pressure of 29.5 inches tracks
southeastward across Ontario Canada. Southwest winds will return
for Thursday ahead of this low, before north northwest winds
return on Friday behind its cold front. Gales and moderate
freezing spray are possible behind the cold front, with wind
gusts likely to exceed Small Craft thresholds for all nearshore
zones as well.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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