Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

731
FXUS61 KRLX 191758
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
158 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
940 AM update...

ISOLD light rain showers have moved into our southeast Ohio
zones this morning courtesy of a weak mid/upper level wave.
While some activity is likely remaining virga, heavier returns
are making it to the ground in some areas through relatively dry
low-levels, albeit not nearly as dry as this time yesterday.
Have increased PoPs to 20-30% across southeast Ohio
southeastward through the northern mountains into early
afternoon to account for this activity.

545 AM update...

Aviation update.

402 AM update...

Guidance has backed off on what was just a small chance of
showers today, now just a slight chance across far northern
portions of the area.

Strong low level southwest flow ahead of a cold front
approaching from the north will result in gusty winds at the
surface Friday, likely higher than central guidance suggests.
This scenario may pan out again on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A warming trend continues through the weekend, with a
  slight hitch caused by a cold front on Saturday.

- 2) The chance for showers increases Friday/Sunday nights in
  association with the approaching cold front Friday night, and
  then another Sunday night. Well-above normal temperatures Sunday
  give way to temperatures closer to normal for the start of
  the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm advection low level south to southwest flow beneath
northwest mid/upper-level will maintain clouds across northeast
portions of the area, with sprinkles or an isolated light rain
shower across northern portions of the area.

The south to southwest low-level feed slackens this afternoon,
only to strengthen again on Friday ahead of a cold front
approaching from the north, to the point where h85 flow
increases to 50 kts northwest ranging down to 30 kts southeast.
With adequate mixing, this could produce surface wind gusts of
30 mph or better, particularly across western and northern
portions of the area, on Friday.

Highs on Thursday will be close to 15 degrees higher than on
Wednesday, with high temperatures on Friday potentially
eclipsing 70 across the southwestern lowlands, amid dry
weather into the afternoon.

The cold front crosses Friday night, interrupting the warming
trend, with high temperatures Saturday not much, if any, higher
than on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The renewed low-level southwest feed on Friday will crank dew
points up into the 50s, ahead of the cold front which approaches
from the north. This could give rise to rain showers late
Friday and Friday night. A thunderstorm is also possible given
narrow, mostly elevated CAPE, as suggested by SPC and central
guidance.

The warming trend resumes with a vengeance on Sunday, as low
level southwest flow increases again ahead of another, possibly
stronger cold front which crosses Sunday night. This surges
temperatures well above normal, into the low to mid 80s southern
lowlands and mid to upper 70s northern lowlands for highs
Sunday. However, record highs are in the upper 80s to low 90s
southern lowlands and and mid 80s northern lowlands by then.
Record highs in the low 80s in the mountains should also be
safe, with forecast high temperatures in the upper 70s. However,
forecast highs for Sunday have trended higher, and are subject
to further change at this distance.

Low level flow, and surface wind gusts, could become as strong
as on Friday, while also cranking dew points back up into the
50s ahead of another, possibly stronger cold front approaching
from the northwest Sunday night. This could give rise to rain
showers again late Sunday through Sunday night. A thunderstorm
is also possible given narrow, mostly elevated CAPE, as
suggested by central guidance.

The start of the new work week brings dry weather, with a
return to near normal temperatures in the wake of the cold
front, before the next warming trend commences around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period (until 18Z
Friday). Isolated light rain showers are possible this afternoon
across the far north, potentially impacting PKB, but no
restrictions are anticipated. Dry weather then prevails area-
wide amid mostly clear skies. Clouds will increase from the
northwest beginning Friday morning.

Light and somewhat variable flow continues today, with light
southerly flow or calm conditions tonight. Southwest flow is
expected on Friday, with gusts of 20-25+ kts late morning into
early evening. A brief period of LLWS could occur at far
northern terminals (CKB/PKB) near or slightly after dawn Friday
morning, but overall confidence in this remains on the lower
side, and has been left out of the TAFs for the time being.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of LLWS could occur at far
northern terminals (CKB/PKB) near or slightly after dawn Friday
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers/storms Friday
evening and overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM/GW
AVIATION...GW