Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS61 KRLX 192217
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence in the potential for thunderstorms Friday
evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front, some of which
could be strong to severe. Additionally, wind gusts for Sunday
afternoon have been increased across the region in advance of a
second cold front set to impact the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A warming trend continues through the weekend, with a
  slight hitch on Saturday caused by a cold front Friday night.
  Sunday will be the warmest day of the week with highs into the
  low 80s across portions of the lowlands.

- 2) The chance for showers and storms increases Friday/Sunday
  nights in association with a pair of approaching/crossing cold
  fronts, with gusty winds expected in advance of the fronts
  during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms could occur
  late Friday into Friday night in advance of the first cold
  front, main hazards being strong wind gusts and hail, although
  an isolated spin-up cannot be ruled out. Significantly above
  normal temperatures on Sunday give way to temperatures near
  or slightly below normal for the start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Much warmer temperatures across the region today amid continued
low-level southwest flow. High temperatures today will reach
into the mid 50s to mid 60s across the lowlands, with additional
warming expected tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Highs tomorrow
will reach into the mid 60s to low 70s across the lowlands,
while mid 50s to low 60s in the mountains. The region is
anticipated to remain dry through this period outside of a few
isolated showers or sprinkles across the far north this
afternoon. This warming trend should steadily diminish remaining
snowpack across the higher terrain, with this trend already
being noted via satellite imagery.

The aforementioned cold front crosses Friday night, effectively
leveling off temperatures for Saturday, with additional warming
expected on Sunday in advance of the second cold front. Highs
on Sunday will be the warmest of the week, with low 80s
currently progged for portions of the lowlands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A pair of cold fronts will bring scattered showers and even
some thunderstorm potential this weekend. The first front
approaches late Friday and crosses throughout the night, with
PoPs currently progged at 30-70%, highest being across the
mountains. Moisture advection / pooling ahead of the front
will result in a narrow ribbon of buoyancy late Friday into
early Friday night, resulting in the potential for at least
ISOLD thunderstorm development. Given kinematic/thermal
profiles, the potential for a few stronger (even severe) storms
remains possible, especially central/north. Gusty winds and hail
are the main hazards, although a brief spin-up cannot entirely
be ruled out. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms across the forecast area.

The second cold front approaches late Sunday, crossing through
the forecast area Sunday night, bringing another round of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm potential. This
front will be more significant in terms of lowering
temperatures, with highs for the beginning of the new work week
expected to return to near or slightly below normal. High
temperatures on Sunday in advance of the front will be the
warmest of the week, with low 80s expected across portions of
the lowlands.

Gusty winds are expected during the day on Friday/Sunday in
advance of both fronts given strong low/mid level flow. Did
increase wind gusts both afternoons from central guidance, with
gusts of 25-35+ mph possible both days across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions can be expected through early afternoon Friday.
Some showers and thunderstorms could then provide some
restrictions, although VFR conditions are expected outside of
any precipitation.

Some LLWS is possible early Friday morning in northeast
Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and western West Virginia.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some LLWS is possible early Friday morning in
northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and western West Virginia.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms
Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...RPY