South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS61 KRLX 020442
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1142 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories for last night
into today have expired, but the Cold Weather Advisories for
this afternoon into Monday morning have been expanded to
include the remainder of the northern mountains, and portions of
the central mountains.

A warm front will bring spotty light snow or flurries on Monday.

The likelihood for precipitation including snow, as well as QPF
and snowfall amounts, all associated with a low pressure system
crossing southern/central portions of the area Tuesday
afternoon and night, has increased slightly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Arctic air persists through Monday morning, with low
  temperatures tonight in the single digits, mostly above zero
  but locally below, and wind chills in the single digits to
  teens below zero on the ridges into Monday morning, where wind
  persists.

- 2) Snow showers still could produce a coating on roads and
  hide ice in the northern mountains this afternoon into
  tonight.

- 3) Another round of wintry weather expected Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday.

- 4) More arctic air on the way by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure building into the area today and tonight will
slacken winds, lastly across the ridges, but clear sky over the
middle Ohio Valley will allow temperatures to fall to the single
digits tonight, above zero except below zero in the normally
colder low spots away from river. Wind persisting on the ridges
will keep wind chills there in the single digits to teens below
zero through tonight and into Monday morning.

In collaboration with neighbors to the north and east, have
expanded the Cold Weather Advisories for this afternoon into
Monday morning to include the remainder of the northern
mountains, and portions of the central mountains.

Warm advection and building heights could get temperatures back
above freezing across southern portions of the area Monday
afternoon, for the first time since the winter storm last
Sunday. However, it will not get above freezing by much,
limiting snow and ice melt. Also, the warm advection will bring
about spotty light snow or flurries, but little if any
accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large, intense occluded low offshore east of VA/NC continues
to head farther out to sea this afternoon. Upslope flow between
it and high pressure approaching from the west, with a
trajectory off the Great Lakes, mainly Erie/Huron, continues to
give rise to upslope, lake-enhanced snow showers. These
efficient powdery snow producers can still create spots on
roads and cover ice in and near the mountains given the very
cold conditions, but will become increasingly confined to the
northern mountains this afternoon, and then diminish altogether
overnight tonight, as high pressure builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Most models show a low pressure system crossing southern
portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and night, also the GFS
continues to track across northern portions of the area. This
will make a difference in how far north the rain/snow line gets,
but it will reach its most northern extent ahead of the system
and during maximum insolation Tuesday afternoon, before sinking
back south under the cover of darkness and with colder air
comes in as the system goes by Tuesday night.

Forecast precipitation amounts with this system are light for
the most part, but have increased a bit, and even higher amounts
can occur when/where forcing comes together. Snow accumulation
will be maximized where this occurs north of the track of the
low center. The latest forecast depicts up to two inches across
the central lowlands and 4 inches across the central mountains,
but these values could shift north or south, and maximum values
could change. WPC QPF and snowfall amounts have trended
slightly higher.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The week ends with mid and northern stream mid/upper-level
short wave troughs, and surface low pressure, passing north of
the area and conspiring to bring yet another shot of arctic
air southward across the area Friday night, as a highly
amplified ridge reasserts itself out west. This sets up a very
cold start to next weekend, and cold weather headlines may be
needed yet again with temperatures comparable to those of our
previous few nights and days.

Snow and any rain snow showers ahead of the system Friday, as
temperatures get above freezing but still in the 30s for highs
across much of the lowlands, would change over to snow showers
Friday night as the colder air arrives behind the evening
frontal passage, and under cover of darkness. These snow showers
eventually evolve into upslope snow showers in northwest flow
as the surface low intensifies while diving southeast off the
New England coast. High pressure builds into the area and cuts
off the upslope flow and snow showers at some point next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some MVFR clouds can be expected early this morning along the
eastern slopes of the northern West Virginia mountains.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this morning.

VFR conditions will gradually become MVFR this afternoon and
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR clouds dissipating in the
northern West Virginia mountains could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        MON 02/02/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for WVZ516-518-
     520>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...RPY