Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS61 KCLE 020431
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1131 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, very little has changed with the forecast. There`s
still relatively high confidence in accumulating snowfall
towards the end of the week, but confidence in snow
accumulations and the resulting impacts is still low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures are expected tonight with minimum
temperatures near or below zero degrees and wind chills to 10
degrees below zero or colder expected.

2) Light snow chances return on Monday, which could produce
marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential widespread accumulating
snowfall late in the week. Travel impacts are possible, but
confidence in snow accumulations and the resulting impacts remains
low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Tonight will be the last night of frigid temperatures (for a few
days, at least) as Arctic high pressure slowly drifts away from
the region. Temperatures will generally be coldest at typical
cold/rural spots in eastern and southern portions of the CWA;
lows will likely dip several degrees below zero and will chills
will likely be as cold as 10 to 15 degrees below zero,
especially if skies end up being completely clear. Elsewhere,
lows will be in the single digits to near zero degrees with
subzero wind chills. Opted against a Cold Weather Advisory given
the potential for lingering cloud cover and an upper ridge axis
building into the region, but it may get close in a few spots.
Will keep an eye on satellite/sky cover trends through tonight.
Either way, the continued cold will likely produce impacts on
infrastructure (i.e., frozen pipes) and pose a risk for
frostbite and hypothermia if necessary precautions are not
taken.

Temperatures will finally "warm" (speaking very relatively here)
on Monday as warm air advection develops behind the ridge axis.
Highs will be in the 20s for at least the first half of the week
with overnight lows in the teens expected Tuesday. Single digit
lows will likely return for the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Chances of light snow showers will return to the region as a
shortwave and weak warm front move east across the local area
Monday. Have widespread slight chance to low end chance (20 to
about 30 percent) PoPs across the entire local area, although
coverage may be quite scattered. Any snow accumulations will be
minor (below an inch), but similar to recent light snow
scenarios, snow will likely accumulate on sub-freezing paved
surfaces. The snow could produce minor travel impacts including
slippery travel and pockets of reduced visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Confidence continues to increase for widespread snowfall as low
pressure moves southeast from the Great Lakes Friday, although
there`s still uncertainty in the timing/placement of the
surface low`s associated upper trough which has an impact on QPF
and the resulting snow accumulations/impacts. At this point, it
appears that the highest snow accumulations could occur across
the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA thanks to the added
moisture from the upstream Great Lakes. Longer range ensemble
probabilities suggest that there is potential for at least 4
inches of snowfall between the low on Friday and possible lake
effect snow as colder air (once again) moves over the region
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
From the previous TAFs, have removed the fog/low stratus
development for YNG and CAK as this looks to stay east of the
region in Pennsylvania according to current satellite imagery,
with an eastward drift as well, but it will still have to be
watched overnight. Ceilings lower with an upper level
trough/weak warm front moving through and light snow potential
on Monday, but playing the visibility changes conservatively
and only going to MVFR at times in -SN. Northwest winds less
than 12kts.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this Thursday. Non-VFR likely Thursday night into Friday
with a cold front moving through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains completely ice covered and will continue to be
through the near term as temperatures will stay below freezing.
Winds across the lake are light, generally less than 10 knots out of
the west and will shift to be out of the southwest tonight as a
surface high pressure moves off to the east. Winds will continue to
shift to be out of the south at 5 to 15 knots throughout the day
Monday then shift to be westerly to northwesterly behind a weak cold
front moving through on Tuesday. Another ridge builds across the
region late Tuesday and persists through late Thursday and winds
will stay around 10 knots or less out of the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...23