Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS61 KBGM 041243
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
843 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in a chance for sprinkles or very light showers this
morning across north-central NY. Increased cloud cover through
late morning as a band of clouds traverses the area from west to
east. Increased temperatures by 1-2 degrees this afternoon, as
it becomes sunny. Also bumped up winds and wind gusts across the
area as soundings show deep boundary layer mixing up to 700mb,
with average winds in this layer around 25 kts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week with
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday.

2) Slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with
additional rounds of showers.

3)Another broad trough in place for the weekend bringing more
cool and showery weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will continue to slide off the east coast today.
This will result in an increase of southwesterly winds ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front stays far enough west for
one more dry day. With sunshine, temperatures should get well
into the 60`s today and 70`s on Tuesday. The increased moisture
coupled with the lift from the approaching cold front looks
sufficient to develop some scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night. Modeled and ensemble guidance does
show indications for some modest 0-6KM shear of 30-40 knots and
about 500 J/KG CAPE. If the NAM model soundings pan out some
gusty winds may be realized with any thunderstorms. Both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon look rather gusty with inverted
V soundings showing up.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Exact timing of the frontal passage Tuesday night into Thursday
is still somewhat uncertain leading to lower confidence on
Wednesday`s temperatures. Precipitation looks to become more
stratiform as low pressure brings a more widespread rainfall
Wednesday. Total rainfall for the two day period looks to be
around an inch, not sufficient for a flood threat at this time.
The front potentially is still close enough for additional
showers on Thursday with a cooling trend starting.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Conditional conditions for frost once again Friday morning if
clearing can occur. Attention then turns to the development of a
broad trough of low pressure returning cooler and showery
conditions this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. LLWS is
possible through early this morning at central NY terminals
until winds start mixing down to the surface.

Outlook:

Tuesday...Scattered showers starting in the late afternoon with
restrictions possible under heavier rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Lingering chances for showers and restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK