Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

727
FXUS61 KBGM 041854
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Southwest winds were increased with gusts of 25-40 mph expected on
Tuesday. Temperatures were nudged slightly warmer Tuesday as well,
especially from Ithaca, Elmira, Norwich south and eastward. Chances
for rain and thunderstorms were updated to be in line with the
latest Convective Allow Models (CAMs) through Tuesday evening. A
Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms was introduced across
portions of Central NY Tuesday afternoon and evening. Also, out
ahead of the showers and storms it will remain warm, sunny and
breezy Tuesday so a Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk
of fire spread was issued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week with increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise breezy southwest winds are expected, with gusts of 25 to
40 mph Tuesday afternoon across the region.

2) A slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with
additional rounds of steady rain and scattered showers.

3)Another broad trough remains in place for the weekend and
early next week bringing more cool and showery weather to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Breezy, warm and partly sunny conditions will continue around the
region into this evening. SW winds are gusting up to 25-35 mph this
afternoon, and these will slowly diminish back to mainly under 20
mph overnight. Some elevated convection and showers move in along an
incoming warm front after midnight into the predawn hours. These can
contain occasional lightning and put down up to two tenths of an
inch of rain locally. Otherwise, it will be mild and partly cloudy
with lows in the 50s tonight.

Tuesday starts off mainly dry and partly sunny in the morning, there
could be a few isolated showers around. SW winds increase again,
reaching 10-20 mph by midday and into the afternoon; gusts will be
up to 25-40 mph. The warm southwest winds will allow temperatures to
reach well into the 70s areawide (perhaps even low 80s in the
Wyoming Valley). Clouds gradually increase from NW to SE over the
region in the afternoon hours, with showers and thunderstorms
developing across the Finger Lakes, Central Southern Tier and upper
Mohawk Valley. Some of the storms could be strong to isolated severe
with gusty winds, hail and even an isolated tornado. This is due to
SBCAPE reaching close to 1000 J/kg, deep layer 0-6km shear of 40-
45kts and low level 0-1km SRH up to 160m2/s2 over this region. SPC
continues to highlight much of CNY (north of the Southern Tier)
under a Marginal Risk for severe storms with this update. The best
timing for any severe storms should be between about 2-7 PM Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. Some of the showers and storms could
also produce heavy rain with PWATS just over 1 inch expected.

A strong low level frontal boundary then pushes south and east
heading into Tuesday evening and night, with periods of rain
following it into the Twin Tiers and NE PA overnight. A wave of low
pressure then rides up along the front as it stalls over the area.
This will bring a steady period of rain across the entire CWA
Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours. The center of the
low is then expected to track directly over the area Wednesday
afternoon. There will be a sharp temperature gradient on either side
of the stationary front, with temperatures on the NW side of the
boundary likely holding in the 40s much of the day on Wednesday
across the Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and Mohawk Valley. The
front`s position looks to be somewhere very close to Broome County,
with areas south and east reaching into the 60s. There is even a
chance for some late day instability south and east of Binghamton,
where there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms heading into
Wednesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the aforementioned low moves north and east into New England
conditions should dry out late Wednesday night, with only a
lingering slight chance for showers. It will be cold with lows in
the 30s to 40s over the area. Thursday is trending drier, with again
just a slight chance for some pop up showers and cool highs in the
50s for most locations. Weak surface ridging remains in place
Thursday night, bringing light winds and partly cloudy conditions.
If skies can clear out enough there will be a risk for frost or
perhaps freeze conditions in some locations overnight into early
Friday morning. The rest of Friday will be cool with more scattered
showers around. Highs are in the 50s once again.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A broad upper level trough remains in place over the Northeast US
and the local area right into early next week. Several waves of low
pressure are forecast to ride along this trough in the west to east
flow over the area. Exact timing of these waves remain uncertain
this far out in time. However, chances for rain are starting to
increase on Saturday as the ensembles try to hone in on the timing
and positioning of this shortwave. The forecast uncertainty rises
for Sunday and Monday, so for now stuck with WPC/NBM guidance which
shows isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday, with
temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s during the day, and overnight
lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Overall, an unsettled, cool and
showery pattern looks to be persistent in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will be be VFR throughout the TAF period.
Southeasterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 kts with gusts
of 20 to 25 kts this afternoon. Overnight, winds will be
slightly less strong but still gusty. Then winds become more
southerly Tuesday morning and get stronger through midday. Peak
gusts of near 30 kts will be possible at most terminals.
Beginning around 03-04z, low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be
possible at all terminals with speeds of 40 to 45 kts. Isolated
to scattered showers are be possible at SYR and RME between 16
and 18z Tuesday, though confidence was too low to include with
this update.

Outlook:

Tuesday Afternoon...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at Central NY terminals starting in the late
afternoon with restrictions possible under heavier rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Chances for showers and restrictions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will reach well into the 70s Tuesday afternoon over
the area. Skies should remain partly to mostly sunny over the
Catskills region through much of the day. This will allow RH
values to fall between 30-40% in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Southwest winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph, with
gusts of 25-35 mph (locally 40 mph on exposed ridgetops).
Considering all of these parameters decided to issue a fire
weather special weather statement for Delaware and Sullivan
Counties. Further to the west, across the rest of the
Leatherstocking region the min RH looks to hold between 40-50%
in the early afternoon, so decided to not hoist any Special
Weather Statements here at this time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL
FIRE WEATHER...