Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

262
FXUS61 KALY 050651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring very cold and dry conditions
today with temperatures well below normal for early December.  The
mainly dry weather will persist into the first half of the weekend,
as a warm front brings a few snow showers and flurries to the
western Adirondacks Saturday into Saturday night.  A clipper low may
bring a more widespread light snow late Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Daytime high temps today 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

 - Clipper low brings a widespread light snow Sun-Sun night with
   the latest NBM 24-hr Probabilities for >2" of snow 20-60% by
   7 am Mon across eastern NY and western New England.

Discussion:

As of 151 AM EST...Frigid morning across eastern NY and western
New England with a 1028 hPa surface anticyclone building in
over the Northeast. Light to calm winds with clear/mostly clear
skies and a fairly fresh snowpack have allowed temps to fall
into the single digits and teens with 5 to 15 below zero
readings over the southern Dacks already. Some zero to 5 below
zero readings will be common over the eastern Catskills, Mohawk
Valley, Lake George Region and southern VT. See the Climate
section with record lows that may be reached this morning. After
a chilly start, temps will rebound some, but will be 15-20
degrees below normal with teens over the higher terrain and
lower to mid 20s in the valleys and over the hills. A northern
stream disturbance passing well north of the St Lawrence River
Valley may increase a few clouds over the Adirondacks today, but
partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail.

As the sfc high quickly departs east of New England and the
Gulf of Maine early Friday night, then expect some clouds to
increase from a southern stream low moving east of the
Carolinas. A little light snow may impact the southern Taconics
and NW CT with a coating to a tenth or so Friday night. Lows
will not be quite as cold with single digits and teens with some
lower 20s closer to the I-84 corridor.

A warm front associated with a trough of low pressure moving
across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region will
increase clouds during the day. The isentropic lift increases
for the southwest Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley for some
snow showers/light snow. Amounts of a coating to less than an
inch are possible. Max temps trend closer to normal, but will
still be 5-10 degrees below normal with mid and upper 30s in
the valley areas and mid 20s to lower 30s over the hills and
mtns. The cold front moves through Sat night with limited low-
level moisture and the scattered snow showers and flurries
ending north and west of the Capital Region with lows in teens
with some single digits over the Adirondack Park.

A micro-ridge or bubble high briefly builds in Sunday, but the
next short-wave and clipper low will be quickly moving towards
the region from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Clouds will
thicken and then lower by the late pm/early evening with light
snow overspreading the forecast area. The latest NBM supports
good chances 20-60% for a plowable snowfall (>2") across the
forecast area. There continues to be spread in the ensembles and
guidance how substantial the snow will be in terms of
accumulations. The GFS continues to be the most aggressive with
some support from the NBM for a 1-3" snowfall north of the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT due to brief coastal re-development.
Some locations in the southern Dacks and southern Greens could
get 2-4" or slightly higher amounts. There could be some impacts
on the Monday morning commute if these snow amounts occur.
Highs on Sunday will be in the 30-35F range from the Tri Cities
south and east and lower 20s to around 30F north and west. Lows
Sunday will be in the teens, except single digits over the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended forecast continues the march of colder than normal
temps and active wx through the first 10 days of December.
Frigid high pressure quickly builds in over the region in the
wake of the clipper with dry and cold weather. Max temps will
run 15-20 degrees below normal once again with lower to mid 20s
in the Hudson River Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT with
teens over the rest of the forecast area with single digits over
the southern Dacks. A frigid night is expected Mon night with
radiative cooling with lows generally 5 below to 5 above zero
before some high clouds increase ahead of the next clipper.

Some light snow develops during the late morning and afternoon
with the warm front to the next clipper moving north of the
Great Lakes. Highest probabilities during the daytime period
will be from the Capital Region and Berkshires north and west
with light snow accums of a dusting to few inches. Despite the
low to mid level warm advection highs will struggle to get out
of the 20s. The light snow tapers to scattered snow showers and
flurries Tue night with lows in the teens and lower 20s.

For the mid-week, a more prolific clipper approaches from the
Great Lakes Region on Wed with isentropic lift increasing across
the forecast area for period of snow to develop in the afternoon
into the evening. NBM probs >4" are still 30-45% for the 24-hr
period ending 12Z/Thu for the Adirondacks. Another widespread
light snow of 1-3" or 2-4" is possible and we may need
advisories for the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but
this system is out several days. The clipper moves away and we
continue to have high chances of snow into and through Thu-Fri
after another system may develop over the Ohio Valley Thu and
track towards the region with predominately snow again. Temps
finish the week below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the
terminals over the next 24 hours with high pressure moving overhead.
Light northwest winds around 5-10 kts initially will become light &
variable late tonight, increasing out of the south to around 5-10
kts by mid-morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lows for this morning December 5th:

Site:     Record Low (Year)     Forecast Low tonight

KGFL      -6F (1989)            -6F
KALB       2F (1989)             0F
KPOU       7F (1966, 1989)       4F
KPSF       0F (1926)            -5F

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...17
CLIMATE...35