Mount Vernon, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS61 KOKX 042322
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of fire spread across the area on Tuesday.

2) Above average temperatures on Tuesday become more seasonable for
the rest of the week.

3) A strong frontal system will bring rain Wednesday and Wednesday
night, possibly lingering into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The combination of drying fine fuels, southwest wind gusts between
25 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values between mainly 30 and 35
percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread for
southern CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and mainly
north western portions of Long Island on Tuesday. The chance
appears lower further east due to a a more southerly component
to sfc winds keeping RH values higher. Regardless of exact RH
values, gusty winds with dry fuels will be able to promote fire
spread if ignition occurs.

This forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions
and has been developed in coordination with state fire and land
management officials.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Offshore high pressure with an approaching low through the middle of
the week is promoting an increasing pressure gradient over the
area through Tuesday which allows for warming temperatures.
Highs on Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees above average with highs
generally in the 80s for western areas and 70s for the east.
Some immediate southern coastal locations may not rise out of
the upper 60s.

The low pressure begins to impact the area into Wednesday which
brings temperatures down to more seasonable levels for the remainder
of the week with highs generally in the 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area
later Tuesday night as a strong cold front starts to approach from
the west. A steady rainfall is progged by NWP and the AI global
guidance. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right
ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere
to stabilize, and thus should limit any convective potential. There
may be enough instability above the boundary layer that a rumble or
two of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but overall expect
essentially a beneficial moderate rainfall region wide. QPF event
totals have decreased some as NWP guidance appears to be progressing
the frontal boundary a bit faster to the east Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into
the day Thursday, but PoPs have lowered, especially for further west
across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to
develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus is further to the
south and east with this trailing disturbance. Thus any rain on
Thursday should be lighter in nature with clouds expected to linger
into Thursday evening, with skies now expected to clear later
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining
offshore.

Gusty S-SSW winds will subside this evening with sustained winds
generally 10 kt or less overnight. SW winds increase Tuesday
morning, becoming S-SSW late morning into the afternoon.
Sustained speeds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt expected in the
afternoon, strongest at coastal terminals. Gusts should begin to
weaken in the evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gust around 25 kt possible through 01z.

Onset time of gusts on Tuesday may be off by 1-3 hours.

Peak gust up to 35 kt possible at KJFK 20z Tue to 00z Wed.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: Slight chance of a shower NW of NYC metro. MVFR
or lower ceilings possible. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible, mainly
near the coast.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower. Slight
chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. SW wind
gusts 20-25 kt, mainly during the daytime.

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through tonight,
mainly in marginal seas. Winds increase again on Tuesday with
SCA conditions likely on all waters. A period of gale force
wind gusts are possible very late in the day Tuesday into the
first half of Tuesday night for the ocean and the eastern and
southern bays of LI. Therefore small craft and marginal gale
conditions are expected Tuesday night, and may very well carry
into the day Wednesday.

The cold front passes through Wednesday night with sub advisory
conditions ending from west to east for the non-ocean waters.
However, seas should remain elevated on the ocean and may extend
small craft conditions for portions of the ocean into early Thursday
morning. Sub advisory conditions should prevail for Thursday
afternoon into the first half of Thursday night. Sub advisory
conditions may be short lived, as small craft conditions may return
on Friday on a NW to W wind.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MW