Howell, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS61 KPHI 042338
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
738 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 00z TAFs.
Updated Key Message 1.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a limited risk for fire weather conditions Tuesday.

2. A few systems bring showers to the area Wednesday into Thursday.
Another weak system could bring some showers on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a limited risk for fire weather conditions
Tuesday.

The wind will diminish tonight and the relative humidity will
recover/increase. For Tuesday, south to southwest winds will
increase again to 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. The relative
humidity Tuesday during peak heating will drop once again into
the 25-30 percent range for many areas. Fuel moisture will decrease
Tuesday with significant heating and a gusty breeze, although
surface dew points should be higher than Monday. Full green-up
has occurred in much of our area, however we will continue to
coordinate with the State Fire Partners on fuel moisture conditions
to determine if a Special Weather Statement is needed for Tuesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A few systems bring showers to the area Wednesday
into Thursday. Another weak system could bring some showers on
Saturday.

The high pressure system is finally displaced on Tuesday, but
the continued influence from the high will keep most of the area
on the drier side. Also during this timeframe, there will be a
low pressure system well to the north in Canada with a cold
front sinking southeast from the Great Lakes region. Our NW
areas have the potential to see an isolated shower (20%) late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The bulk of the showers will move
in late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and continue
through the day Wednesday as the cold front sinks southeast into
our area. This cold front then stalls across the region into
Thursday with a wave of low pressure moving northward along the
front leading to more showers on Thursday. The model trends
today is for the front to shift farther east and offshore
Thursday, with some guidance missing most if not all of our area
with showers associated with low pressure along the front.

While some guidance still attempted to bring some convective
elements to the region, the consensus is that we will see
low instability and limited to zero severe/flooding threat.
Overall, this will be more beneficial rain for the area with an
isolated thunderstorm possible.

For Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will move into the region,
potentially producing some showers. This appears to be nothing
more than a potential weekend spoiler with no significant impacts
expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots, diminishing to 10 knots or less (becoming locally
light and variable for a time). As the winds decouple at the
surface tonight, a modest southwesterly low-level jet will cross
our area resulting in a period of low-level wind shear overnight
and prior to daybreak. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. South to southwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts
25-30 knots, with the strongest winds occurring during the
afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible north and
west of the I-95 terminals. Gusty south/southwest winds
gradually diminishing.

Wednesday through Thursday...MVFR/IFR conditions with showers,
especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. An
isolated thunderstorm possible. Southerly wind gusts 20-25 knots
on Wednesday.

Thursday night...Conditions improving.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions and showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday. South
to southwest wind gusts will increase up to 30 knots into
Tuesday. Seas will also build.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory is in
place for all marine zones. Wind gusts up to 30 knots out of
the south/southwest and seas 4 to 7 feet.

Wednesday night through Thursday...SCA conditions could linger
as winds decline but seas could near 5 feet.

Thursday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deal/Gorse/Hoeflich/MPS
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS