Madisonville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXUS63 KPAH 041703
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1203 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following some pre-dawn storms along the I-64 corridor and
  Evansville Tri-State, southwesterly winds become breezy with
  Lake Wind Advisory and elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread
  southeast across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, with 80-100% chances Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

- Chances (30% north to 60-70% southeast) of showers will
  linger into Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms still possible
  near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders,
  then showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday
  night.

- Rainfall amounts hold fairly steady, with the latest forecast
  amounts mostly in the one to one and three quarters of an inch
  range. Chances of greater than an inch are 60-80%, and greater
  than 2 inches are 15-40%.

- Low end chances (20-30%) of showers and storms are forecast
  Friday night and again on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper level disturbance crossing through the Midwest tonight
has produced showers and thunderstorms tracking east-
southeastward through Central Illinois. Areas along the I-64
corridor and Evansville Tri-State have a 20-40% chance of
showers through dawn. Some small hail can`t be ruled out but
approaching storms have lost the severe potential some of them
carried further northwest.

Lingering slight chances of showers continue in the far north
Monday while dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Breezy
southwesterly winds ramp up today with sustained winds of 15-25
mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued
for the forecast area. Considering RHs bottoming out around 30%
today, along with dry soil conditions, these breezy winds will
also result in elevated fire weather conditions.

Low pressure today over Ontario trails an extended cold
front southwestward to the Central Plains. Models, especially
the CAMs, have trended towards drier conditions for the Quad
State today and delayed onset of activity tonight to almost
exclusively after midnight. Showers and storms become widespread
by early Tuesday, with numerous showers (80-100% chance) Tuesday
and Tuesday night when the cold front slowly drifts southward
through the Quad State. Before that happens, breezy
southwesterly winds will continue Tuesday. The best potential
for some strong to severe storms will be Tuesday afternoon and
evening, which has a portion of SEMO upgraded to a D2 Slight
Risk as low pressure organizing in Oklahoma/Arkansas begins
tracking east-northeastward along the front. Models have varied
timing and positioning of MCS features, some of which would keep
severe weather south of the Quad State. Monday night-Tuesday
morning activity muddies the picture for what follows.

Shower and thunderstorm activity decreases following the front,
but remains through at least the day Wednesday, mainly in
Western Kentucky. Overall QPF remains around 1-1.75in which
should provide beneficial rains for the ongoing drought, without
causing much of any flooding issues.

Late week/weekend activity is fairly likely but carries
uncertainty with a split flow in the west that meets up near the
Quad State. A cutoff low is located in the Desert Southwest
late week while systems plunging southeastward from the
northwest around a ridge. One of those northern track systems
reaches the Midwest Friday and may extend a cold front through
the Quad State but NBM PoPs have been reduced to a slight
chance Friday night so this could well stay north and/or weaken.
Sunday PoPs in the chance range are a mix of ensemble members
placing the Quad State either on the northern side of the
eastward progression of the cutoff low, in the path of the next
disturbance from the northwest, or some of both.

Temperatures surge today with gusty southwesterly winds, lifting
highs to around 80. Continued southerly breezes keep lows
tonight in the upper 50s to near 60. Rainy conditions Tuesday
limit highs and the cold front Tuesday night will return us to
well below normal temperatures mid-week. A warming trend
afterwards lifts highs to the mid-70s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions with gusty south winds remain forecast for the
rest of the afternoon and early evening. A few showers may
approach MVN but the odds seems fairly low for now. Rain showers
and thunderstorms will become a factor most everywhere by the
late overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday with MVFR/IFR cigs
and visibility possible towards the end of the new TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...JGG