Noblesville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS63 KIND 091324
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for light precipitation late tonight and moreso
  late Tuesday and Tuesday night

- Milder temperatures into the 70s this afternoon...then a return to
  cooler conditions Sunday night through Monday night

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Areas of lower stratus linger in wake of the Friday evening and
overnight rain but in general skies were trending towards sunny this
morning with weak high pressure across the region. 13Z temperatures
were generally in the mid and upper 50s.

Shallow moisture in the near surface layer will take a few more
hours to fully mix out with stratus slowly diminishing in coverage
or more likely transitioning to a scattered cu field by early
afternoon. It will become breezy for the afternoon as well with dry
adiabatic flow present through about 900mb highlighting a well mixed
boundary layer.

The persistent upper low over northern Ontario remains a prominent
feature with another wave aloft and associated surface trough
pivoting across the lower Great Lakes late today into this evening.
Cannot rule out a few showers and rumbles of thunder ahead of the
trough impacting primarily the far northern and northeast sections
of the forecast area after 21Z and extending into the evening.
Isolated showers will drift further south with the boundary this
tonight.

Despite the presence of the upper low to the north...temperatures
will warm to slightly above normal levels for the first time in five
days. Low level thermals support highs mainly in the mid 70s this
afternoon. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today through Monday night...

Pattern will trend quieter through the short term, albeit with lingering
damp conditions this morning and another rounds of more widely-scattered
showers overnight tonight...with the stubborn anomalous upper trough
through eastern Canada then dragging its cool tail over the Midwest,
bringing more below normal readings for early next week.

The overnight`s quasi-training rain which brought over an inch of new
rainfall for several counties along an axis parallel to and just south
of Interstate 70...will provide lingering moisture both at the surface
and through the boundary layer.  Broken stratus is expected to linger
this morning over most locations...with at least isolated visibility
reductions in patchy fog as decks break from west to east.  Any ponding
of water in low-lying areas will be receding through pre-dawn to early
morning hours...with any impacts most likely in an elongated area from
southern Clay County east-northeast to Johnson County.

Staunch zonal flow aloft around the belly of the persistent Ontario
H500 trough will include an embedded lower-level subtle surface trough
that will slowly cross the region by this evening.  Scattering-out
status by early afternoon will be replaced by a pleasant late spring
day...with robust west-southwest breezes climbing to 15-25 mph for
several hours this afternoon, advecting seasonably warm mid-70s with
while dewpoints hold under 55F.  Approaching boundary and upper forcing
to set off scattered showers closer to northeastern portions of the
state, with perhaps a couple stray showers as far south as Kokomo and
Muncie this afternoon.  Better organization of at least widely
scattered showers steadily crossing the CWA late this evening and
more so through the overnight, with no impacts expected.

Lighter northerly to northwesterly breezes to prevail Sunday through
Monday, bringing rain-free and a few more periods of sub-normal
readings with low 40s to mid-60s the rule...while skies overall
trend from partly cloudy Sunday to mostly sunny Monday.

Previous discussion for Monday night onward...

Rain chances return once again on Tuesday ahead of another low
pressure system. Coverage of precipitation and overall QPF amounts
remain uncertain this far out. One of the main caveats is
moisture return appears subtle ahead of the approaching system. An
amplified shortwave should promote surface cyclogenesis north of
the area so light precipitation does appear likely for at least
parts of central Indiana. This system is expected to depart on
Wednesday supporting drier conditions. Look for temperatures to
gradually moderate towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Impacts:

- Transient MVFR/IFR before 14Z from patchy fog and/or low stratus
- WSW winds gusting up to 17-23KT this afternoon
- Winds veering quickly to northerly within 01Z-09Z as weak cold
   front passes from west to east tonight

Discussion:

Areas of IFR/brief LIFR ceilings and patchy IFR/MVFR visibility in
fog for the next 1-2 hours this morning as noted by TEMPO groups
for all central Indiana terminals through 14Z.  Otherwise mainly
VFR conditions expected amid low/mid decks through midday.

West-southwest flow to increase this afternoon ahead of next
boundary, with gusts peaking 17-24KT.  Isolated convection later
today likely to stay well north/east of local TAF sites.  Winds
veering quickly within a 2-3 hour period tonight as initially dry
boundary crosses region...with widely scattered anafrontal -SHRA
later in overnight, mainly around KLAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...AGM/Melo