Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS63 KIND 041926
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
326 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing northward,
  through the afternoon. Potential for severe winds and hail this
  evening into tonight.

- Cooler and rainy on Tuesday. Heavier rain late Tuesday could lead
  to localized flooding.

- Largely below normal this upcoming week, with multiple chances for
  additional rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This afternoon, scattered showers with isolated lightning are
slowly pushing northward. Winds aloft are sitting around 50-55 mph,
with gusts up to 50 mph periodically mixing down to the ground
within stronger showers. Outside of the rain, gusts of 20-35 mph are
also mixing down and these winds are expected to continue into the
early overnight hours.

More showers and storms are expected to arrive this evening, ahead
of a cold front that will be pushing from NW to SE through from
tonight through early Wednesday morning. There is the potential for
severe storms this evening to tonight ahead of the front as winds
aloft and instability increase, potentially enough to overcome
the limited moisture at that time. Main threats will be damaging
winds as well as hail. The tor threat doesn`t look great, but it
is non- zero. The severe threat is expected to come to an end
within a few hours after midnight, but scattered showers and
storms will continue. Models show an additional surge of moisture
from the S/SW to arrive Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours
then prompting localized flooding concerns, particularly across
our south. In total with this system, 1-2 inches are forecasted
through Wednesday morning, but locally higher amounts, again
mainly in the south, can`t be ruled out.

Also with the front, cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow and last
through much of the rest of the work week. Rain should come to an
end by Wednesday morning or midday, exiting to the SE.

Overall upper pattern remains unchanged for Thursday and on. Models
suggest the upper low that provided the cold front remaining over
eastern Canada, keeping the continued cyclonic flow in place aloft
over much of the eastern 1/2 of the country including Indiana. This
will keep a steady stream of below normal temperatures in place
across Indiana from Thursday through the weekend. Meanwhile at the
surface, a series of weak highs and lows will look to pass. High
pressure is expected to push across the area on THursday, before a
weak trough passes on Friday. Another high arrives for Saturday
followed by a slightly more organized low on Sunday. Given the
cyclonic flow in place aloft, and forecast soundings suggest cold
air aloft with steep lapse rates available each day, daily
convection cannot be ruled out and for the moment, additional
support appears available on Friday and Sunday. Thus daily chances
for rain will be expected in the forecast, however, this will be
mainly due to daily diurnal chances and the passing of the trough
and low on Friday and Sunday respectively. Overall, high confidence
of periodic showers during this period, but low confidence on
specific timing.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms through this evening at all sites
- Gusty SW winds of 20-30 kt into the overnight hours
- Additional thunderstorms arriving from NW to SE after 02Z
- Low MVFR to IFR ceilings starting early to mid morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions to start off the period as some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are across the area. Better rain and storm
chances arrive later this evening and last through much of day
tomorrow. SW wind gusts of 20-30 kt should persist to around
midnight before weakening. Can`t rule out LLWS overnight after gusts
diminish, but looked scattered and confidence wasn`t high enough to
include in the TAFs.

Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR and eventually IFR as a cold
front moves through, starting early morning. Visibilities should
also drop to MVFR within the rain as well.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF/ Puma