Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS62 KTAE 041351
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- The next opportunity for rain arrives Thursday thanks to another
  cold front approaching the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

No updates necessary to the forecast this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today and Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

High pressure moseying overhead will lead to another dry day with
temperatures bouncing back into the lower to middle 80s. Southerly
winds return in earnest tonight into Tuesday, allowing temperatures
to increase into the middle to upper 80s Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday with a few locations approaching 90 Wednesday and Thursday.
A cold front approaches the region Thursday, allowing temperatures
to nudge back into the upper 70s to middle 80s Friday and Saturday.
As far as rain chances are concerned, enough moisture arrives
Tuesday afternoon to mention a very low, less than 10 percent,
chance for a few passing showers. The greatest potential for rain
arrives with the aforementioned cold front on Thursday.

A closer inspection of the H5 pattern shows an H5 ridge anchored
over the southwestern Gulf and a closed H5 low swirling over
southern Hudson Bay in Canada. We`re stuck between them through at
least Wednesday with the ridge nudging closer to us Tuesday and
Wednesday. A decent H5 trough dives out of Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday, pushing a cold front into the Southeast. However, the H5
ridge remains stout across the central Gulf, so there`s some
uncertainty as to how far south the front will make it. Either way,
Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) are forecast to be at or above the
90th percentile for early May, or over 1.6" to 1.8". Combine that
with the nearby front and afternoon sea breeze potential and there`s
a decent chance for more rain on Thursday!

There`s also the potential for an isolated stronger storm or two
Thursday afternoon. 0-6km Bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, a departing
low-level jet (LLJ), and sufficient instability does mean we`ll
monitor the potential for a stronger storm or two capable or
producing damaging wind gusts.

The forecast beyond Thursday largely hinges on where the front
eventually stalls. If the front manages to make it south of our
coastline, then we`ll be on the drier side of it. On the flip side,
if it stalls over the area in any capacity, we`ll hold onto daily
rain chances Friday and Saturday. Add in PWATs forecast to remain
between 1.5" to 1.8" along the stationary front and there`s the
potential for periods of locally heavy rain. Again, this isn`t a
given, but it`s certainly a scenario we`ll monitor over the coming
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Light to gentle northeasterly winds are forecast across the
northeastern Gulf today thanks to high pressure overhead. Light to
moderate southerly winds develop later tonight and last through at
least Wednesday before turning more southwesterly Thursday ahead of
another cold front along with a few showers and storms Thursday into
Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Dry conditions prevail again today with MinRH forecast to drop to
between 25 to 35 percent across much of the region. Light and
variable winds are forecast today, leading to poor to fair
dispersions this afternoon. Southerly winds return Tuesday as MinRH
recovers back above 40 percent Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Increasing southerly Transport winds will lead to high dispersions
Tuesday and Wednesday. Our next chance for a wetting rain arrives
Thursday along with a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

No significant flooding is anticipated the next several days.

Our next good chance for rain is on Thursday thanks to an
approaching cold front. Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) are
forecast to increase to 1.6" to 1.8", or near the 90th percentile
for early May. Add in the cold front and there`s the potential for
another 0.25" to 0.75" of much needed rain Thursday. Additional rain
is possible Friday into Saturday, but that hinges entirely on
whether the cold front fully clears the area or not. If it doesn`t,
more rain would be in the offering Friday and/or Saturday. We`ll
see.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  57  84  62 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   80  58  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        80  53  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        80  55  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  58  88  62 /   0  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  62  78  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese