Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

805
FXUS62 KTAE 012340
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
640 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for
  tonight into Monday morning for much of the region. Very cold
  temperatures can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.
  Take action to protect vulnerable people, pets, pipes and
  plants.

- There is increased potential for navigational hazards due to
  low water levels through Monday and Tuesday in the bays,
  harbors, inlets, and tidal rivers of the eastern FL Panhandle
  and Big Bend.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters
  beyond 20 Nautical Miles through this afternoon. There is a high
  (80 percent) chance that another advisory will be needed for
  Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Some of the latest MOS guidance has trended colder as the winds
die down this evening into the overnight. So that gave us enough
confidence to expand the Freeze Warning for a hard freeze tonight
for the Forgotten Coast along with the rest of the area away from
the Emerald Coast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track
with another very cold night ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

One more night of very cold overnight temperatures is on tap for the
region before being replaced with `just` cold overnight temperatures
for the rest of the week. Widespread low temperatures in the low to
mid 20s are expected tonight. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect for tonight into Monday morning for much of
the region. Very cold temperatures can lead to hypothermia with
prolonged exposure. Take action to protect vulnerable people, pets,
pipes and plants.

Surface high pressure over the Gulf keeps us dry through midweek as
it traverses eastward. By Tuesday into early Wednesday the high will
be centered over the FL Peninsula and offshore in the western
Atlantic. This will allow us to see some return flow off the Gulf
for around 24-36 hours ahead of our next cold front, which moves
through mid to late Wednesday. Dew points overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, look to recover into the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of
the front, according to current model guidance. Although this sounds
like it would provide some reasonable amount of instability, the
cold nearshore Gulf waters after weeks of northerly flow will
provide a stable marine layer across our inland counties. We`ll
likely see fog, perhaps dense in nature, across the region Wednesday
morning prior to frontal passage, limiting diurnal instability.
Forcing for ascent will come from PVA ahead of the trough and a
modest low level wind field around 25 - 35 kts at 925mb and 850mb
could lead to a thunderstorm or two across our Florida counties.
However, the most likely scenario is light to moderate stratiform
rain with the occasional downpour embedded. Once the front clears
the region Wednesday night we`ll see a return to cold dry air coming
in from the north through Saturday. The cold air behind the front
does not currently look to be as intense as the cold air we just
experienced and perhaps a pattern change towards warmer temps is in
store for us next week... at least one can hope.

Daytime highs look to generally be in the 50s and 60s throughout the
week with Thursday and Friday morning being the chilliest behind the
cold front. Overnight lows generally remain in the 30s Monday night
and beyond, outside of Wednesday morning where a brief warm up into
the upper 40s and low 50s is expected ahead of frontal passage as
southerly flow pumps warm moist air northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period. Northerly winds
diminish tonight into early Monday morning before increasing and
turning more westerly as Monday progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Through this afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
waters beyond 20 Nautical Miles and small craft should exercise
caution for the waters within 20 Nautical Miles of shore. Meanwhile,
in the Eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend, there is increased
potential for navigational hazards due to low water levels through
Monday and Tuesday in bays, harbors, inlets, and tidal rivers. After
high pressure transits the waters early this week, a cold frontal
passage is expected late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a
high  (80 percent) chance that another Small Craft Advisory will be
needed for  Wednesday night and Thursday. Looking ahead, another
cold front looks to sweep across the waters Friday and Friday night
with additional advisory-level conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

High dispersions region wide are expected over the next couple
days. MinRHs will gradually recover over the next couple days,
widespread MinRHs in the 20s percent on Monday will recover into
the 40s percent on Tuesday, further increasing into Wednesday.
Transport winds will pivot between northwest and southwest over
the next few days generally remaining around 10-15 mph. Our next
chance for rain will come with a cold front set to move across
the region on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

There are no flooding concerns. In the Eastern FL Panhandle and Big
Bend, there is increased potential for navigational hazards due to
low water levels through Monday and Tuesday in bays, harbors, inlets,
and tidal rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   24  54  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   28  55  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        25  54  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        22  52  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      22  53  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    20  54  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  28  52  42  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-
     128-134-326-426.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for
     FLZ114.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ122>131-
     144>148-155>161.

AL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver