St. Petersburg, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS62 KTBW 041215
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.

- Warming trend the remainder of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Frontal boundary remains stalled across the Florida Straits with
some deeper moisture across south Florida. High pressure the north
has setup a low level northeast to east flow across the region
bringign some drier air into the region, but there is expected to
be enough moisture around when combined with the sea breeze to
allow for a few showers to develop late this afternoon and
evening. Best chances will be across southwest Florida, but some
of the hi-res guidance does indicate a few showers as far north
as the Tampa Bay area. For now will leave forecast as is and
monitor for possible adjustments later to bring 20 to 30 PoPs
further north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A few showers late this afternoon and evening could pop up
causing some brief MVFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. Northeast to
east winds will increase to around 10 knots with some higher gusts
this morning, then shift to northwest at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the
sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. Northeast to east winds
will return to all TAF sites this evening and diminish to 4 to 7
knots later this evening and overnight.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
A stationary frontal boundary across the southern Florida
peninsula combined with a weak U/L disturbance continues to
produce a few light showers mainly over southwest Florida. The
U/L disturbance will exit east of the area today with high
pressure building over the forecast area with decreasing
cloudiness and drier air advecting over much of the area.
However, can`t rule out an isolated afternoon shower or storm
over southwest Florida. The clearing skies will lead to warmer
temperatures this afternoon than the past couple of days.

Low level moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday as the surface
ridge axis will be located north of the region creating easterly
boundary layer flow off the Atlantic.  An U/L ridge will build
over the Florida peninsula mid week with increasing large scale
subsidence causing temperatures to climb several degrees above
normal. The subsidence should also inhibit afternoon convection
creating flattened CU/partly cloudy skies and very warm
days...and mostly clear nights.

A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late in the week
stalling across north Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L
flow. There will still be a chance of showers/thunderstorms
developing over the northern nature coast and portions of west
central Florida as moisture increases and the mid level cap begins
to erode. The U/L ridge will gradually give way and be suppressed
to the south over the weekend with a slightly better chance of an
afternoon shower or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
High pressure will hold over the waters through the week with
generally benign conditions expected. Easterly flow today will
shift to the south to southeast by mid week...then veering to the
west and southwest ahead of a frontal boundary late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
Drier air over the region will cause minimum afternoon relative
humidity values to drop to near critical levels mainly across the
nature coast today. However, winds are expected to remain below
critical values. Moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  68  89  72 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  86  68  90  70 /  20  20  10   0
GIF  85  65  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
SRQ  86  66  87  69 /  10  20  10   0
BKV  88  58  90  61 /   0  10  10   0
SPG  87  72  88  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby