Spring Hill, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS62 KTBW 181858
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Heat Advisory today for most of the area for heat index values up
  to around 110 degrees. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees
  continue into the weekend.

- High rip current risk today into Friday, with lingering moderate
  rip current risk into the weekend before diminishing.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure ridge remains south of the state keeping west to
southwesterly flow in place. Tight gradient between remnants of
Arthur will support breezy winds today and Friday. Additionally,
cautionary level marine conditions are anticipated along with high
risk of dangerous rip currents during this time. PWAT values are
just below 2 in., there is plenty of instability to support showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. The flow regime in place
will keep pushing convection east as the sea breeze moves inland.
Also, some the parameters needed for gusty winds with to reach the
surface if storms develop will be in place today and again on
Friday.

On the other hand, dangerous heat continues today and Friday. The
Heat Advisory that is in effect will expire at 7pm this evening, but
we will likely need another one on Friday. High temperatures once
again will peak in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices.


&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Going into the weekend and next week, the area of high pressure
stays south with prevailing west to southwest winds, and moisture
gradually increasing. This will keep above normal temperature in
place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. This pattern
will support a few showers and storms near the coast early becoming
widespread over the interior as the sea breezes collide. Overnight
lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal
areas remaining around 80 degrees. Additional advisories may be need
through the period. Pockets of slightly drier air attempts to move
into the CWA early next week lowering convection coverage to
isolated-scattered on Monday and Tuesday, especially over the
interior and along/south of I-4, before the ridge axis drifts back
north across the area favoring increased sea breeze convection
and associated PoPs by mid week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period across terminals.
Breezy south to southwesterly prevail going into the evening.
Rain chances remain low, however, given the current trends, added
VCTS to LAL, FMY and RSW. Most of the activity over SWFl should
push inland over the next couple of hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Unsettled boating conditions remain across the Gulf waters as
tight gradient persists. Mariners are urged to exercise caution
wile operating small crafts. Winds and associated elevated seas
gradually decrease on Friday into the weekend with no additional
headlines expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Very warm and humid conditions are anticipated through the period.
High moisture will keep minimum humidity values well above
critical levels. West to southwesterly winds prevail each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will
be possible near the coast early, and become widespread over the
interior through the afternoon and into the evening through the
weekend. No fire weather concerns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  20
FMY  80  95  79  94 /  10  20  10  40
GIF  78  96  77  94 /  20  40  10  50
SRQ  81  93  80  92 /   0  20   0  10
BKV  79  94  77  93 /  10  20  10  40
SPG  82  93  81  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley