Miami, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS62 KMFL 191930
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

  - Heat indices as high as 105-110 degrees expected each day
    through the end of the weekend.

  - Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will
    continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast
    Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be
    hazardous to sensitive populations.

  - Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and
    thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The remnants of Arthur can be seen tracking eastward across the
southeast U.S on satellite, expected to move off the east coast.
As this is happening, an upper level shortwave moves into the
state pushing a surge of moisture into the area for the next
couple days. Recent CAMs guidance shows isolated convection likely
to start firing across interior portions of the area within the
next couple hours. This convection will likely be focused along
the sea breeze boundaries as they move inland. Taking a look at
model soundings and current mesoanalysis data shows high amounts
of DCAPE, ~1100J/Kg, around which makes for the capability of
some decent downburst winds with any strong convection that can
get going. Saturday afternoon shows similar conditions on model
soundings with DCAPE ~1000J/Kg and good lapse rates, so would
expect to see a similar risk of some downbursts.

In terms of the heat, it isn`t going anywhere with a Heat
Advisory today in effect through 7PM. Tomorrow could end up seeing
very slightly better conditions, but a lot of that will be very
dependent on how much convection we see that would bring us some
relief. PoPs are generally 70-80% for interior areas and 55-65%
along the coasts. Regardless, heat indices tomorrow will still be
in the 105-110F range with Major Heat Risk (level 3 out of 4) so
unsurprisingly another Heat Advisory is likely. High temperatures
will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s in the afternoon hours
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Into the long term period, we can expect similar conditions to the
end of the short term period with Sunday seeing high PoPs (~70-80%
inland and 50-60% coastal). After Sunday, our upper level
shortwave disturbance projects eastward away from the area leaving
us back in the broad upper troughing regime. Additionally some
surface high pressure looks to build into the Gulf for the first
half of the work week. These factors will contribute to slightly
drier conditions compared to the weekend. In terms of rain and
thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the long term
period, Pops are generally 50-60% each day mostly for interior
areas. Convection would be likely to be focused along the sea
breeze boundaries each day. Areas closer to the coast will see
much more isolated convection, ~25-35% PoPs through the period
after Sunday.

Heat will continue to be a concern through the period, with heat
indices reaching the 105-110F range each day. Afternoon high
temperatures don`t budge much, reaching the low to mid 90s each
day. Heat product issuances are likely going to be needed most
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Prevailing VFR at all terminals this afternoon and this is likely
to persist through the forecast period. A few storms my find there
way near some terminals this afternoon and early evening which
could briefly bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Smoke continues to
spread towards western areas due to the ongoing fires, but has not
been causing any major vis issues at terminals thus far.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic
waters today with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the local waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas
possible with any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less
outside of any thunderstorm activity.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Southeasterly winds continue across Southeast Florida today with
southwesterly winds in Southwest Florida. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and
evening with a focus for inland locations across the interior,
including Alligator Alley and Big Cypress. Low-end chances for a
couple of storms to drift back towards the Atlantic and Gulf coasts
late in the day. Dispersions will be generally good today and again
tomorrow. RH values will remain well above critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  78  93 /  20  60  30  60
West Kendall     76  93  76  94 /  20  70  30  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  94 /  20  70  30  60
Homestead        78  92  78  93 /  10  50  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  92 /  20  60  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  78  91 /  20  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   80  95  79  95 /  20  70  30  60
West Palm Beach  78  91  77  92 /  30  80  30  60
Boca Raton       79  91  78  91 /  30  70  30  60
Naples           79  91  78  91 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99