Brandon, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS62 KTBW 190012
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
812 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 810 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- There is the potential for a Heat Advisory again tomorrow with
  some areas again experiencing heat index values of 108 degrees
  or higher. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees will
  continue into the weekend areawide.

- High rip current risk continues into Friday, with lingering
  moderate rip current risk into the weekend before diminishing.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase through the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

There are just a few showers continuing across the southern interior
this evening, as most of the convective activity pushes off the NE
FL coast. Overnight, conditions look quiet, but warm. This means
tomorrow will again start off warm and muggy as the SW flow
continues. With this setup, another day of potential heat advisories
looks in store, consistent with the current forecast.

No changes to the forecast are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure ridge remains south of the state keeping west to
southwesterly flow in place. Tight gradient between remnants of
Arthur will support breezy winds today and Friday. Additionally,
cautionary level marine conditions are anticipated along with high
risk of dangerous rip currents during this time. PWAT values are
just below 2 in., there is plenty of instability to support showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. The flow regime in place
will keep pushing convection east as the sea breeze moves inland.
Also, some the parameters needed for gusty winds with to reach the
surface if storms develop will be in place today and again on
Friday.

On the other hand, dangerous heat continues today and Friday. The
Heat Advisory that is in effect will expire at 7pm this evening, but
we will likely need another one on Friday. High temperatures once
again will peak in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Going into the weekend and next week, the area of high pressure
stays south with prevailing west to southwest winds, and moisture
gradually increasing. This will keep above normal temperature in
place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. This pattern
will support a few showers and storms near the coast early becoming
widespread over the interior as the sea breezes collide. Overnight
lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal
areas remaining around 80 degrees. Additional advisories may be need
through the period. Pockets of slightly drier air attempts to move
into the CWA early next week lowering convection coverage to
isolated-scattered on Monday and Tuesday, especially over the
interior and along/south of I-4, before the ridge axis drifts back
north across the area favoring increased sea breeze convection
and associated PoPs by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the night and into tomorrow. There is
a 20% to 30% chance for most coastal terminals to see a thunderstorm
tomorrow afternoon (with an even lower chance for a shower from 16Z
to 20Z). However, the better coverage of thunderstorms will once
again take place across the interior, in the vicinity of terminals
like KLAL. Deeper moisture returns for Saturday, suggesting
potentially better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. However,
this overall setup will continue each day through the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Unsettled boating conditions remain across the Gulf waters as
tight gradient persists. Mariners are urged to exercise caution
wile operating small crafts. Winds and associated elevated seas
gradually decrease on Friday into the weekend with no additional
headlines expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Very warm and humid conditions are anticipated through the period.
High moisture will keep minimum humidity values well above
critical levels. West to southwesterly winds prevail each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will
be possible near the coast early, and become widespread over the
interior through the afternoon and into the evening through the
weekend. No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  81  92 /   0  20  20  20
FMY  80  95  79  94 /  10  20  20  40
GIF  78  96  77  95 /  20  30  10  50
SRQ  81  93  79  92 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  79  94  77  93 /   0  30  30  30
SPG  82  92  81  92 /   0  20  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme