Dover Base Housing, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

538
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
102 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section updated for the 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Diminishing winds tonight, and some showers late tonight and
Friday morning for parts of the region.

2. A system moves through sometime Monday into Monday Night,
likely bringing unsettled weather to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Diminishing winds tonight, and some showers late
tonight and Friday morning for parts of the region.

The strong winds will continue to diminish tonight as the core
of the low to mid level jets continue to shift to our east and
northeast. A ripple of energy sliding by Delmarva late tonight
and Friday morning should bring some showers, and perhaps a
rumble of thunder, mainly to areas of Delmarva and southern New
Jersey.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A system moves through sometime Monday into
Monday Night, likely bringing widespread rainfall to the area.

Medium range guidance continues to hint at a stretch of unsettled
weather to start next week. The main question will be the track of
the low pressure as it moves through the region, which will have
notable consequence in specific impacts. The main takeaway though is
that Monday is currently looking unsettled, with some thunderstorms
likely mixed in as the area of low pressure moves through, mainly in
the afternoon. Consensus guidance already shows PWAT values (1.75-
2.00") near the climatological maxima, setting up the risk for heavy
rainfall. Still a lot of uncertainty remains, but the overarching
synoptic setup will be favorable for an impactful system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible (25-40%) at
KACY/KMIV later this morning but restrictions unlikely.
West/northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Today...Primarily VFR. Chance of showers (20-40%) at KACY/KMIV
through about 15z though conditions should stay VFR. No chance
of showers at other terminals. Winds start out of the
west/northwest around 10 kt, increasing to around 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt for the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds diminish quickly around/just after 00z.
West/northwest winds 5-10 kt expected. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. West/northwest wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt

Saturday Night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible late
(30-40% chance).

Monday through Monday Night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with
widespread showers and some scattered to isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has expired. Sub-SCA conditions
expected through Saturday with west/northwest winds around 10 to
20 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...No marine headlines
expected.

Monday through Monday Night...SCA conditions expected (80-90%)
with southerly wind gusts increasing to around 30 kt with seas 4
to 8 feet.

Tuesday...SCA conditions could linger, but more tranquil weather
takes over.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, west-southwesterly winds generally 5-15 mph. There
will be a south-southeasterly swell of 3 to 5 feet at around 7
seconds. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet are anticipated.
Have opted for a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore and a LOW
risk for Delaware beaches for the development of dangerous rip
currents, where flow is more offshore. Did consider downgrading
the Jersey Shore given tranquil conditions, but will have to see
how quickly windy and rough conditions in the surf zone taper
off.

For Saturday, westerly winds remain around 10-15 mph. However,
the onshore swells begin to weaken, decreasing to around 2 to 4
at around a 7 second period. Breaking waves in the surf zone
should be around 2 feet or less as a result. Therefore, a LOW
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast
for all beaches on Saturday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/Guzzo/Hoeflich/MJL/Staarmann
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...AKL/Guzzo/MJL