Rio Rico, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

026
FXUS65 KTWC 042120
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will approach and cross the
region through Wednesday. Breezy winds are expected today and
Tuesday with this system, as well as a chance of showers and
thunderstorms from this evening through Tuesday. High
temperatures are expected to fall below normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, then rise back above normal the latter half of the
week. Well above normal temperatures are likely by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A closed low is currently centered over the
central California coast with moisture streaming in ahead of it
over Arizona, which is responsible for all of the cloud cover.
This low will continue to move onshore over the next couple of
days and open up as it does so. Moisture values will peak
tonight with PWAT values around 225 percent of normal. Slight
chance for showers this afternoon with chances getting much
better as the evening goes on and into the overnight hours.
Showers are expected to set up as a band associated with a weak
surface front to the north and west of Tucson this evening, then
progress eastward tonight into Tuesday morning. Still some
differences in the speed and timing of this band of showers
between models, but right now it looks like the band will begin
to move through Tucson some time between 9 PM and midnight.
Most hi-res guidance has been trending later with each
progressive run, so would lean closer to midnight right now.
Tuesday morning showers dissipate from west to east with a
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms north and east of
Tucson during the afternoon. Rain totals through Tuesday
afternoon will generally be 0.01"-0.2" in the valleys and up to
0.5" in the mountains. The 04/12Z HREF is hinting at the
possibility of slightly higher totals in the mountains,
specifically the Catalinas, Rincons, Pinalenos, and White
Mountains. Through Tuesday afternoon the HREF gives these
locations a 40%-50% chance to see greater than 0.5" of rain and
20%-30% chance to see greater than 0.75". Peaks above 10000 feet
in the Pinalenos could see some light snowfall tonight as well.

This system will also bring breezy winds today into Tuesday as
well as cooler temperatures through Wednesday. Expect wind
speeds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-35 mph both days. Winds will be
strongest Tuesday over Cochise County with gusts to 40 mph
possible. High temperatures will be a couple degrees below
normal today, 10-12 degrees below normal Tuesday, then 8-10
degrees below normal Wednesday.

The main trough exits the region Wednesday, but a shortwave breaks
off the backside of the main trough and slowly meanders over
Sonora through at least Thursday. Right now it doesn`t look
like this feature will prolong rain chances but could tamper the
warmup that begins Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures
return to normal Thursday then warm 6-10 degrees above normal
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
BKN-OVC cigs 10k-14k ft AGL with cigs lowering to around 5k-8k
ft AGL after 05/03Z as a front slowly moves through. Isolated to
scattered -SHRA will be possible tonight into Tuesday morning
as the front moves through. These showers should move through
KTUS-KOLS-KSAD in a window from 05/04Z-05/12Z, and KDUG around
05/10Z-05/14Z, though there remains some uncertainty in the
timing of their development as well as their coverage. This
afternoon and evening expect winds out of the southwest 12-18
kts with gusts to 25 kts becoming south southwesterly 8-12 kts
after 05/04Z. Winds pick up again Tuesday afternoon out of the
southwest 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. The strongest winds
both days will be at KDUG. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will continue to
approach the region today, increasing southwesterly winds this
afternoon to 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. As the system
crosses on Tuesday winds will increase to 18-25 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph, especially from Santa Cruz eastward through
southern Cochise county. Moisture will increase with incoming
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms from this evening
through Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity in the valleys today
will be 15-20 percent and 20-30 percent in the mountains,
increasing to above 20 percent in the valleys and above 30
percent in the mountains on Tuesday. Temperatures 4-10 degrees
below normal arrive with this system Tuesday and Wednesday.
Relative humidity quickly dries out the second half of the week
from Wednesday onwards. Well above normal temperatures are
expected by the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Hardin

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