Gilbert, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS65 KPSR 022121
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
221 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures will continue
  to prevail this week.

- A period of breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will return
  for Wednesday and Thursday.

- A pattern change looks likely starting early next week which
  could bring much cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis
reveal that a weak shortwave trough has made its way into southern
California early this afternoon. This weak shortwave trough will
quickly move through AZ through the rest of this afternoon and
evening. With this trough moving through our are, it has brought
slightly lower heights aloft and some high clouds to our area
allowing for a brief and slight cooling trend. Afternoon
temperatures should be noticeably cooler today compared to
yesterday as temperatures are forecasted to only be in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees today, which is still around 10 degrees
above normal. As of 130pm, temperatures are around 1-6 degrees
cooler today than they were at this time yesterday.

Despite the brief cool down today, another strong ridge of high
pressure is setting up over the eastern Pacific. This ridge will
then move eastward over western CONUS on Tuesday and Wednesday. The
ridge will max out late Tuesday into Wednesday with H5 heights above
the 90th percentile of climatology. Models continue to show that the
center of the ridge will be over northern California/northern
Nevada. Despite this, the NBM forecast continues to show the lower
deserts seeing highs in the 82-85 degree range for both Tuesday and
Wednesday, peaking on Wednesday. The higher terrain areas are
forecasted to see afternoon high temperatures ranging from the
upper 60s to upper 70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Easterly
downslope winds will pick up on Wednesday with gusts of 15-25 mph
possible, with some higher gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible in
the higher terrain. These easterly downslope winds on Wednesday
could easily push some Phoenix locations above 85 degrees. The
latest NBM probabilities show a 50% chance of Phoenix tying the
daily record of 86 degrees on Wednesday. Afternoon high
temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday are around 12-16 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Due to this most lower desert
locations will see Minor HeatRisk for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
So make sure to take proper precautions to protect yourself from
the heat (like drinking plenty of water, using sunscreen, and
taking breaks in the shade), especially if you`re outside for
prolonged periods of time and/or are extremely sensitive to the
heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
The brief Rex block set up for Tuesday and Wednesday is expected
to break down somewhat by Thursday as an upstream kicker trough
moves toward the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast.
A weak cut-off low west of Baja midweek is also shown to open up
and move north northeastward Thursday into Friday, moving across
at least western portions of our region. This disturbance will
help to bring an good amount of higher level moisture and clouds
into our region on Thursday, but nearly all indications keep very
dry air in place below 10K feet. The most optimistic ensemble
members do show a chance of some light high-based showers over
higher terrain areas Thursday night into Friday, but PoPs remain
below 5%. Lowering heights along with the clouds late week are
likely to drop daytime highs back down to around or just below 80
degrees starting Thursday.

Model guidance is starting to come to a better consensus for the
upcoming weekend with the kicker trough and the weakening cut-off
low feature merging by Saturday, likely along the California coast
or just to the west. Much like the past several weak systems,
this next one for the upcoming weekend is likely to be mostly cut
off from the main flow. At the moment ensembles generally agree
this system will form and become a closed low somewhere to our
southwest by the weekend and mostly pass to our south. Even with a
track to our south, it should at least result in an increase in
moisture across our region. However, so far models show the
moisture advection will not be enough to bring much in the way of
any precipitation chances over the weekend.

Long range model output is starting to show some positive signs of
a pattern adjustment for next week with at least a 50% probability
of a deeper and colder trough developing across the Southwestern
U.S. at some point during the first half of next week. If this
holds true, we should see some PoPs appearing in the forecast soon
along with a more meaningful cooling trend next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period.
The overall wind pattern will follow light and diurnal tendencies
with speeds aob 7 kts along with extended periods of variable to
calm conditions. SCT to occasionally BKN high cirrus will stream
across the region throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
this week. Humidities will remain quite low with with afternoon
minRHs commonly between 10-20% range areawide through Thursday.
Overnight recoveries will also remain fair to poor with
humidities generally topping out in a 35-55% range through
Thursday. A slight increase in humidity is expected Friday and
this weekend with minRHs going into the 20-30% range and overnight
recoveries going into the 50-70% range area wide. Light and
mostly terrain driven winds will prevail into Tuesday before the
weather pattern again supports breezy northeasterly to easterly
winds mid to late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Phoenix, AZ Daily Record High Temperatures.

2/2  82 (2025)
2/3  86 (2025)
2/4  86 (2025)
2/5  87 (1963)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Kuhlman/Berislavich
CLIMATE...Benedict