Apache Junction, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

706
FXUS65 KPSR 142338
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
438 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail
  across the entire region through the coming week.

- Record setting highs and warm lows will be possible across the
  lower deserts today and Monday, including Phoenix.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis
reveal strong upper level ridging still in place over the Desert
Southwest along with a weak shortwave trough moving onshore in
southern CA. The weak shortwave will move through our area later
in the day on Monday (see long term discussion below). The ridge
has H5 heights of 582-584 dm, which is above the 90th percentile
of climatology. This unusually strong ridge for this time of year
is resulting in temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and high
temperatures around their daily records. In fact, as of 1:13pm
MST Phoenix Sky Harbor set a new record high temperature of 79
degrees, which breaks the old record of 78 set in 2010. With a
couple hours of heating left, that new record could climb even
higher. Elsewhere across the lower deserts afternoon highs will
range from the upper 70s to low 80s and in the upper 60s to mid
70s across the higher terrain. SImilar temperatures are forecasted
for tomorrow. Tomorrow`s record high temperature for Phoenix is
79 degrees and the NBM is forecasting a high of 80 degrees, so
another record could be broken tomorrow. Periods of high clouds,
associated with the aforementioned shortwave, will be common
across the region today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The passing weak shortwave trough on Monday will briefly knock
down H5 heights to between 578-580dm, but it will barely impact
temperatures as highs should only drop 2-3 degrees Tuesday before
warming again later this week. Another strong ridge is seen
pushing eastward in behind the exiting trough with H5 heights
briefly rising back to between 582-584dm on Wednesday. The center
of the ridge is expected to stay well to our west, but heights
over our region are still forecast to remain at or above the 90th
percentile of climatology through at least midweek. Daytime highs
for the latter half of the week are likely to top out anywhere
from 76-80 degrees, or at least 10 degrees above normal.
Eventually, ensembles show a deeper trough passing across the
Northwestern U.S., potentially dipping into a portion of the Great
Basin into the Central Rockies by next weekend. This should
flatten the ridge some, but it is still too early to tell how much
it will affect our region and if temperatures will drop much next
weekend. Either way, the pattern will continue to support dry
conditions across the Desert Southwest through the entirety of the
upcoming week. Longer range guidance is still suggesting a
pattern shift by Christmas with a trough setting up off and along
the West Coast. If this continues to hold, we may see
precipitation chances around or just after Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2329Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period.
Winds will be light (aob 10 kts) and should remain predominantly
easterly at the Phoenix Metro terminals through this evening. At
the SE California TAF sites, winds will be mostly light and VRB
through much of the afternoon before switching out of the N-NW at
KBLH and W at KIPL this evening. Periods of SCT high clouds will
continue to progress through the region this afternoon and
evening before looking to clear out by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure will result in warm and dry conditions
continuing through the upcoming week. Highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s will be common across the lower deserts, or upwards
of 10 to 15 degrees above daily normals. Winds will follow
familiar diurnal trends with occasional breeziness across the
higher terrain areas. MinRHs this week will range from 15-25%
while overnight recoveries will generally be between 40-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/15   79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan/Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict