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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211513
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210639
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will
characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow
(Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by
the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy
conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners
region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with
5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of
Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also
introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake
River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15
percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours.
..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202048
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
To start next week, the western states will be under a brief period
of zonal flow aloft, though embedded shortwave troughs will provide
opportunity for breezy surface winds, before ridging returns to the
Intermountain West. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal
and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across
the region. A high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long
enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over
the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will
dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread
precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional
fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term
forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the
Southwest high expected to weaken by late next week. As this high
breaks down, additional fire weather concerns will be possible late
next week.
...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
...Day 4/Tuesday...
As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry surface
conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to
increased westerly surface winds. As such, an area of 40 percent
probability of Critical wind/RH continues over portions of northern
AZ and far southern UT.
...Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday...
Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to
increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It
appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ and
western NM followed by UT and CO mid-next-week. As is typical with
this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing
moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect
adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the
timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear.
The consensus among the latest mid-term forecast guidance is that
this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to
weaken by late next week.
..Stearns.. 06/20/2026
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