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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Update...
No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing
westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the
low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200712
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday),
with surface high pressure becoming established east of the
Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly
flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are
likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest
moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may
limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire
weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday.
..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192112
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into
the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the
upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the
Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery
of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing
across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to
develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking
down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern
Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day
4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical
fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far
southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears
to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge
builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy
conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40%
area.
On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will
move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase
downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions.
While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and
location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due
to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features.
Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the
southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West
and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the
southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the
stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing
probabilities at this time.
Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple
rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the
southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure.
Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in
portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast
elevated/critical fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
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