ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051920

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   The Elevated area was expanded slightly in portions of Colorado,
   Wyoming, and Montana based on the latest high-resolution forecast
   guidance. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain possible in
   portions of far southern Nevada and Utah into northwest Arizona, but
   uncertainty remains regarding thunderstorm development over
   receptive fuels.

   ..Nauslar.. 08/05/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the western CONUS
   as an upper low traverses the Canadian Prairies, permitting strong
   northwesterly flow to overspread the northern Plains. Ahead of an
   approaching cold front, daytime high temperatures will reach 90+
   degrees F as RH values quickly decline to less than 20% and
   west-northwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The aforementioned
   cold front will enter Montana sometime Day 2/Thursday afternoon,
   though approximate timing is uncertain given varying model
   solutions. As the front passes, winds will shift to broadly
   northerly at 15-25 mph (gusts over 30 mph) for a couple of hours
   while RH increases overnight. Elevated highlights have been
   introduced across portions of the Colorado Plateau into the northern
   Plains where ERCs will range from the 80-95th percentile, and NDVI
   portrays a significant 30-day decrease in live green vegetation.
   Prolonged above normal temperatures, a dry boundary layer, and
   briefly breezy winds may encourage locally elevated fire conditions
   to emerge across the California valleys and adjacent higher terrain
   where widespread ERCs exceed the 90th percentile.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   An upper high is expected to remain over the southern Great
   Basin/Four Corners through the weekend while the upper-level ridging
   over the northern Intermountain West will flatten. Monsoonal
   moisture will slowly drift west into southern California and north
   into Great Basin and eventually back to the Colorado Rockies during
   the outlook period. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the
   location/magnitude of both the monsoonal moisture and flattening of
   the ridge through the weekend and into next week. 

   ...Northern Intermountain West...
   The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday across
   British Columbia and possibly into the northwestern CONUS, with a
   higher likelihood of zonal flow across the northwestern US over the
   weekend. Westerly flow aloft will increase along with a
   strengthening onshore pressure gradient to bring dry and breezy
   conditions to portions of the northern Intermountain West starting
   Day 3/Friday. Broad 40% areas remain on Day 3/Friday - Day
   4/Saturday with locally critical conditions expected in the Cascade
   Gaps, while much of the 40% areas will likely experience near to
   elevated fire weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are
   likely to continue on Day 5/Monday from northern California
   extending across the northern Great Basin into eastern Wyoming.
   During this period, winds are likely to be west-northwest sustained
   at 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 5-20%. 

   ...Southern Intermountain West...
   Monsoonal moisture will slowly spread west/north with increasing
   chances and coverage of thunderstorms in southern California, the
   Great Basin, and western Colorado. There remains uncertainty
   regarding the western/northern extent of the monsoonal moisture,
   especially the amount and moisture duration. Probabilities of dry
   thunderstorms were added to Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. These areas
   were chosen based on expected low probability of wetting rainfall in
   the coming days. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms
   are likely farther east in Utah and Colorado, but there are higher
   probabilities of monsoonal moisture persisting across these areas
   with eventual wetting rainfall. Additionally, mixed wet/dry
   thunderstorms are likely in the Peninsular Ranges of southern
   California, but PWAT values of 1.25"+ and surface dewpoints of 50F+
   along with slow storm motions may limit ignition efficiency. These
   10% areas are likely to change in the coming outlooks, and Day
   5/Sunday was the last day included due to decreasing forecast
   confidence beyond this weekend. 

   ...High Plains...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern
   Montana and Wyoming this weekend and potentially continuing through
   early next week. Lee troughing and eventually a deepening surface
   low on the central Plains will help increase winds amid a hot and
   dry airmass. Increasing southerly winds across portions of western
   Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will
   likely result in elevated winds/RH. Given the potential for
   thunderstorms and wetting rain across portions of these areas ahead
   of time, probabilities were not included at this time. However, if
   forecast trends hold, probabilities/risk areas are likely to be
   included in future outlooks.

   ..Nauslar.. 08/05/2026