|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...Southwest Florida...
Cooler but very dry post-frontal flow from the north is still
expected to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns
to the southwest FL Peninsula through this afternoon. Elevated
highlights were maintained across the area as north winds of up to
15 mph and relative humidity in the 20-30% range contribute to an
increased wildfire spread potential amid moderately dry fuels.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow occurring over the Rockies
in addition to surface troughing across the Central Plains will
support enhanced downslope winds and drying leeward of the
central/southern Rockies today. A slight expansion of elevated
highlights were made into the Denver metro area and adjacent
foothills where sustained winds of 15 mph and relative humidity as
low 15% will align with dry fuels. A similar expansion was made into
the Trans-Pecos region of TX. Otherwise, no changes to a more
expansive elevated fire weather threat across central TX/far
southern OK resulting from dry return flow on the western periphery
of a surface high pressure anchored over the southeastern U.S.
..Williams.. 11/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of an amplified large-scale trough departing the
Eastern Seaboard, a dry (albeit cool) post-frontal air mass has
infiltrated the FL Peninsula. Here, a tight surface pressure
gradient and enhanced northerly low-level flow down the Peninsula
will yield dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern and
southwest FL during the afternoon. Around 10-15 mph sustained
northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH will favor elevated to
locally critical fire-weather conditions, given at least modestly
receptive fuels.
Farther west, a subtle/low-amplitude midlevel perturbation embedded
within moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
central and southern Plains during the day. This will reinforce
surface troughing and a tight pressure gradient across the region.
On the eastern periphery of the surface trough, 15-20 mph sustained
south-southwesterly surface winds combined with 20-25 percent RH
will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
across the southern Plains. To the west, downslope warming/drying
amid the tight pressure gradient will also contribute to dry/breezy
conditions from the lee of the central Rockies into the central High
Plains. These conditions atop dry fuels will lead to a brief period
of elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon -- before
surface winds begin to weaken.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110800
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a surface high centered over the
Gulf Coast states, a tight pressure gradient and shallow
boundary-layer mixing into a swath of enhanced flow aloft will yield
dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Southeast into the
Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. Around 25-30 percent RH and 10-15
mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds may favor locally
elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on
rainfall during the last few days.
..Weinman.. 11/11/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102144
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A more diffuse surface high pressure evolves across the Southeast
midweek allowing generally lighter winds to develop across the
region, reducing the fire weather threat. A persistent southerly
flow on the western periphery of the high should bring deeper Gulf
moisture and higher humidity into portions of the Southern Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley as a mid-level ridge builds over the
central U.S. through Day 5/Friday. Farther west, a mid-level trough
deepens across the northeast Pacific, ushering in marked mid and
upper-level moisture into the much of the West through the end of
the week. A mid-level trough/low moving into the Southwest towards
the weekend could spur some fire weather concerns across the
southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday, before bringing
some much needed precipitation to the region, with eventual rainfall
potentially moving into lower Mississippi Valley early next week.
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern High Plains...
Modest westerly flow aloft over the central/southern Rockies and
subsequent lee trough development in the central/southern Plains
will promote dry and locally breezy conditions across east-central
NM and western TX Thursday. However, fire weather threat appears to
localized to include critical probability delineation at this time.
...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
An approaching mid-level trough and associated stronger mid-level
flow progressing into the Southwest should support a broader fire
weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Friday. A
40% critical probability delineation remains in place for eastern NM
and the TX Panhandle. Uncertainty in the western extent of higher
Gulf Moisture across the southern and central Plains and weaker
surface pressure gradient lowers predictability for fire weather
concerns across the southern High Plains for Day 6/Saturday.
...Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
The mid-level trough/low ejects into lower Mississippi Valley early
next week while a cold front sweeps through the Northeast by Day
8/Monday. The resultant trail of frontal precipitation and more
widespread rainfall across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley will generally reduce fire weather concerns early next week
across eastern CONUS.
..Williams.. 11/10/2025
|
