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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211513

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
   to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
   Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
   western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
   with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
   remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
   updates necessary.

   ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
   multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
   Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
   central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
   southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
   Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
   percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
   central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
   highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
   Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
   15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
   percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
   as well.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210639

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will
   characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow
   (Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by
   the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy
   conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners
   region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with
   5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of
   Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also
   introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake
   River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15
   percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202048

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   To start next week, the western states will be under a brief period
   of zonal flow aloft, though embedded shortwave troughs will provide
   opportunity for breezy surface winds, before ridging returns to the
   Intermountain West. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal
   and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across
   the region. A high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long
   enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over
   the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will
   dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread
   precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional
   fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term
   forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the
   Southwest high expected to weaken by late next week. As this high
   breaks down, additional fire weather concerns will be possible late
   next week.

   ...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
   ...Day 4/Tuesday...
   As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry surface
   conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to
   increased westerly surface winds. As such, an area of 40 percent
   probability of Critical wind/RH continues over portions of northern
   AZ and far southern UT.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday...
   Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to
   increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It
   appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ and
   western NM followed by UT and CO mid-next-week. As is typical with
   this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing
   moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect
   adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the
   timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear.
   The consensus among the latest mid-term forecast guidance is that
   this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to
   weaken by late next week.

   ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026
      




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