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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191634
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected this afternoon across central-southwestern
Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains. Daytime high temperatures
will approach 100 degrees or greater amid 10-20 mph southwesterly
winds and 25-30% RH. Given exceptionally dry fuels, meteorological
conditions could support new ignitions and fire growth within the
drought stressed landscape.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low across the western US will move into the northern
Rockies today, with a surface low developing across the central
Plains.As the surface low deepens, pressure gradients will increase
across the central/southern Plains with breezy south to
southwesterly winds. A cold front will move southward into the
central Plains and eventually into the southern Plains.
...Southern Oklahoma into North-Central Texas....
Ahead of the approaching cold front, surface pressure gradients will
increase, with southwesterly surface winds to around 10-20 mph
overlapping with relative humidity reductions to around 25-30
percent across portions of southern Oklahoma into north-central
Texas. Guidance has come in with higher relative humidity than in
previous runs, with a few members maintaining relative humidity at
or above 30 percent. As such, the Elevated was trimmed down to
include highest probability of relative humidity around 25-30
percent overlapping with the belt of stronger winds based on HREF
ensemble guidance.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191851
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Overall fire weather concerns remain low across the contiguous U.S.
for Day 2/Sunday; please see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
Weak mid-level troughing will remain across the central US on
D2/Sunday, with a cold front sagging southward across the central
and southern Plains. Several disturbances rotating through the flow
will bring multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity both
along and north of the surface boundary. This should aid in some
improvement of the critically dry fuels across much of the southern
Plains. Overall, expected increase in relative humidity and
precipitation chances will keep fire weather concerns low.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192045
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Discussion...
Weak mid-level impulses embedded within zonal flow will promote
precipitation chances from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard
through early next week. A shallow cold front will expand from the
southern Plains into the Mid-South on Day 3/Monday, slowly
progressing southward through Day 4/Tuesday. Accompanying the front,
near to slightly below average temperatures and increasing moisture
will bring some temporary relief to the southern Plains fuelscape.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue across the lower
Mississippi Valley through next week, contributing to forecast ERCs
approaching the 90-95th percentile beyond Day 5/Wednesday; but,
prevailing light winds should suppress overall fire weather
concerns.
A weak mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest on Days
3-4/Monday-Tuesday, bringing better moisture and thunderstorms to
Nevada. Some mixed receptive fuels may reside across portions of
eastern Nevada, though forecast ERCs range from the 50-70th
percentile. Ensemble guidance is in general agreement for ridging to
build over the central-western CONUS late in the workweek as an
upper trough evolves across the Eastern Pacific and impinges upon
the Northwest. The overall pattern indicates stronger southwest
winds could return to the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
as early as Day 6/Thursday; however, an expected marginal fuelscape
should limit a broader fire weather threat.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026
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