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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191634

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated fire weather
   conditions are expected this afternoon across central-southwestern
   Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains. Daytime high temperatures
   will approach 100 degrees or greater amid 10-20 mph southwesterly
   winds and 25-30% RH. Given exceptionally dry fuels, meteorological
   conditions could support new ignitions and fire growth within the
   drought stressed landscape.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level low across the western US will move into the northern
   Rockies today, with a surface low developing across the central
   Plains.As the surface low deepens, pressure gradients will increase
   across the central/southern Plains with breezy south to
   southwesterly winds. A cold front will move southward into the
   central Plains and eventually into the southern Plains.

   ...Southern Oklahoma into North-Central Texas....
   Ahead of the approaching cold front, surface pressure gradients will
   increase, with southwesterly surface winds to around 10-20 mph
   overlapping with relative humidity reductions to around 25-30
   percent across portions of southern Oklahoma into north-central
   Texas. Guidance has come in with higher relative humidity than in
   previous runs, with a few members maintaining relative humidity at
   or above 30 percent. As such, the Elevated was trimmed down to
   include highest probability of relative humidity around 25-30
   percent overlapping with the belt of stronger winds based on HREF
   ensemble guidance.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191851

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Overall fire weather concerns remain low across the contiguous U.S.
   for Day 2/Sunday; please see the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Weak mid-level troughing will remain across the central US on
   D2/Sunday, with a cold front sagging southward across the central
   and southern Plains. Several disturbances rotating through the flow
   will bring multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity both
   along and north of the surface boundary. This should aid in some
   improvement of the critically dry fuels across much of the southern
   Plains. Overall, expected increase in relative humidity and
   precipitation chances will keep fire weather concerns low.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192045

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Discussion...
   Weak mid-level impulses embedded within zonal flow will promote
   precipitation chances from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard
   through early next week. A shallow cold front will expand from the
   southern Plains into the Mid-South on Day 3/Monday, slowly
   progressing southward through Day 4/Tuesday. Accompanying the front,
   near to slightly below average temperatures and increasing moisture
   will bring some temporary relief to the southern Plains fuelscape.
   Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue across the lower
   Mississippi Valley through next week, contributing to forecast ERCs
   approaching the 90-95th percentile beyond Day 5/Wednesday; but,
   prevailing light winds should suppress overall fire weather
   concerns. 

   A weak mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest on Days
   3-4/Monday-Tuesday, bringing better moisture and thunderstorms to
   Nevada. Some mixed receptive fuels may reside across portions of
   eastern Nevada, though forecast ERCs range from the 50-70th
   percentile. Ensemble guidance is in general agreement for ridging to
   build over the central-western CONUS late in the workweek as an
   upper trough evolves across the Eastern Pacific and impinges upon
   the Northwest. The overall pattern indicates stronger southwest
   winds could return to the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
   as early as Day 6/Thursday; however, an expected marginal fuelscape
   should limit a broader fire weather threat.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026
      




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