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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151551
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
Near record heat (for 15 November) is expected today across portions
of the Texas Panhandle into portions of western Oklahoma ahead of an
approaching cold front. The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance
suggests strong low-level mixing will promote sustained wind speeds
exceeding 15 mph (west-southwesterly before switching to northerly
behind the front) amidst minimum RH values of less than 20% for at
least a few hours this afternoon. An Elevated Fire Weather Area was
introduced across portions of the Texas Panhandle into southwestern
Oklahoma, as little-to-no cool air associated with the front is
expected to reach the area prior to peak heating, and where fuels
are critically receptive to fire spread (ERCs near the 80th-90th+
percentiles) owing to ongoing moderate-to-severe drought conditions.
Please see the discussion below for additional information on
today's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 11/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today
across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across
portions of the TX Panhandle region and across southern Georgia into
South Carolina. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front
beginning to push south/southeastward across the Great Plains. This
feature is expected to advance into the OH Valley through today and
into the Southern Plains by this evening. While breezy post-frontal
conditions are expected, an influx of cooler air will limit fire
concerns for most regions.
...Texas Panhandle/Western Oklahoma...
Latest guidance continues to show the approaching cold front
reaching the TX Panhandle/western OK by around mid-day with westerly
winds shifting to the north at around 15 mph. The strongest
low-level cold advection is expected to remain displaced to the
northeast of the region, which should allow RH minimums to fall into
the 15-20% range as daytime heating warms an antecedent dry air
mass. In general, the overall post-frontal wind signal is not overly
strong per recent ensemble guidance with 20 mph sustained winds
residing near the 95th percentile of the ensemble envelope. However,
solutions with strong low-level mixing hint that sustained winds
could exceed 15 mph for some locations with occasional gusts upwards
of 20-25 mph possible. As such, areas of transient elevated fire
weather conditions appear possible across the TX Panhandle into
western OK and northwest TX.
...Southern Georgia into South Carolina...
Surface high pressure is expected to build southward through the day
ahead of the approaching cold front/surface low over the Great
Lakes/OH Valley regions. This will promote mostly sunny skies and
help maintain the dry column present in the lowest few kilometers
noted in recent FFC soundings. Diurnal heating within this air mass
should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range by this
afternoon, which given ongoing drought conditions, may support
localized fire weather concerns from southern GA into portions of
southern SC. Weak gradient winds under the surface high will limit
wind speeds to near/under 10 mph and prevent a more
robust/widespread fire weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151943
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon across portions of the central/southern
mid-Atlantic. Several hours of breezy post-frontal northwesterly
sustained surface winds near 15 mph are forecast to overlap minimum
RH values near 25% and critically receptive fuels (owing to
ongoing/persistent moderate-to-severe drought conditions). The
Elevated fire weather area was expanded in most directions with this
forecast update based on the latest high-resolution ensemble
guidance suggesting greater coverage of dry/breezy conditions. A
Critical fire weather area may be needed with future outlooks if
sustained wind speeds trend stronger in ensemble guidance.
Locally Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible across
portions of the Ohio Valley (centered on Indiana and vicinity),
where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected to overlap
receptive fuels. While an Elevated area was considered, the forecast
minimum RH values and sustained wind speeds currently do not meet
Elevated criteria.
Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's
fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 11/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are probable Sunday afternoon
across portions of central Virginia in the lee of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. The cold front currently pushing across the Great Plains
is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday, pushing well
offshore by early afternoon. This will establish a northwesterly
offshore flow regime across the region with downslope winds off the
Blue Ridge Mountains likely reaching to around 15 mph based on
recent ensemble/deterministic consensus. These solutions also
suggest that very little rainfall is likely with the frontal
passage, which will help maintain ongoing drought conditions and
keep ERC values near the 90th percentile. With RH reductions to near
25% likely by peak heating, elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions appear probable.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152121
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift quickly eastward from
the Central Plains Day 3/Monday, across the Midwest Day 4/Tuesday,
and then offshore over the Atlantic by early Day 5/Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a deeper mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come
onshore across the West Day 3/Monday before gradually progressing
eastward across the Southwest through much of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, associated lee surface cyclogenesis is expected Day
3/Monday and again midweek (Day 5/Wednesday or Day 6/Thursday)
across the Central Plains. Heavier rainfall is also possible across
the Southern Plains with the midweek trough, which may help reduce
fuel receptiveness.
...Day 3/Monday: Southern Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are probable Day 3/Monday across portions of
the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma with the aforementioned
deepening surface low across the Central Plains. Near-critical fire
weather conditions are expected during the afternoon as breezy
west/southwesterly surface winds overlap near-critical RH values and
receptive fuels. At this time, the coverage of sustained surface
wind speeds exceeding 20 mph amidst critical RH values is too
brief/spotty to increase Critical probabilities above 40%.
...Day 3/Monday: Mid-Atlantic...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the
southern/central Mid-Atlantic Day 3/Monday. While minimum RH values
may be a bit lower than the previous day (Sunday), the current
forecast sustained surface wind speeds are below critical thresholds
- owing to the surface pressure gradient relaxing - which precludes
introducing Critical probabilities at this time.
..Elliott.. 11/15/2025
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