ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281634

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...Southwest and Southern Plains...
   Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and
   Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the
   Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in
   portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds
   of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align
   through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and
   surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly
   stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass
   stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the
   afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of
   fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights
   have been trimmed.

   ...Upstate New York and much of Vermont...
   South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south
   of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower,
   currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20%
   expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels
   remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th
   percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated
   Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green
   Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in
   place across the region.

   ..Williams.. 04/28/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
   CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
   the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
   weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
   southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
   mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
   region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
   ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
   flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
   allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
   VT amid a very dry airmass.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
   afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
   receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
   coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
   increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
   More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
   close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
   east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.

   ...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
   As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
   positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
   expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
   corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
   morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
   mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
   still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
   will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
   across upstate NY and western VT.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)