ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030656

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
   and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
   At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
   from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
   across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
   flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
   southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
   coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
   southern High Plains this afternoon.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
   height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
   trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
   The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
   south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
   Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
   with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
   across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
   gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
   mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
   yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
   abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
   elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.

   Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
   mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
   eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
   duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
   upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
   farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
   conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
   potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
   Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
   favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
   bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
   with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
   accompanying the frontal passage.

   ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)