Tacoma, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXUS66 KSEW 161706
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
906 AM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of very active weather will dominate the week
ahead as a series of frontal systems produce cascading impacts
across Western Washington. In addition to ongoing river flood
concerns, another period of windy conditions is expected
tonight into early Wednesday. Snow levels will tumble to the
passes by early Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected in the
mountains. Cool, unsettled conditions will remain in place
through the remainder of the week with substantial additional
snowfall in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After a brief lull between systems early today, a secondary stronger
system arrives tonight. Wind potential with it remains a concern.
When combined with saturated soils already in place, the threat
of fallen trees increases. Models show a sharp surface mesolow
forming to the lee of the Olympics by 09Z Wednesday. This
creates a very strong pressure gradient Seattle southward.
Isallobaric analysis shows impressively strong pressure rises
behind it...as much as 7 to 10 millibars in just three hours
early Wednesday morning. So, it`s not just wind speeds alone,
but the rapid manner in which they could arrive. A very strong
westerly surge will occur through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. In
the period between around 11 PM tonight and 6 AM Wednesday,
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected for portions of the the
interior lowlands with 50 to 60 mph along the coast, strait, and
around Hood Canal. Snow levels will tumble to the passes by
early Wednesday with significant snowfall expected. Totals could
approach 10+ inches at Snoqualmie Pass by Wednesday afternoon,
18 to 24 inches at Stevens, and 2 to 3 feet at Mount
Baker/Rainier. The snowfall will be accompanied by strong winds
as well. A combination of post-frontal convergence and upslope
flow will keep the snow piling up in the Cascades into Wednesday
night. Quick on the heels of that system, another arrives on
Thursday for additional lowland rain, breezy winds, and
impactful mountain snowfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is no significant change in thinking for the extended
portion of the forecast. A parade of systems will arrive nearly
daily with additional lowland rain and mountain snow. Snow
levels will remain near or below the passes through the period
with significant additional accumulations.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong west to southwest flow aloft will turn westerly late
tonight as a vigorous frontal system moves onshore into Western
Washington. Ceilings will lower to MVFR later this morning in
increasing rain with a few pockets of IFR. These conditions will
persist into tonight. Surface winds will increase by early
afternoon and become strong overnight as the system moves
onshore. After 03Z tonight, southwest surface winds gusting as
high as 35 to 45 knots can be expected along the coast and
across interior terminals around Puget Sound. These winds will
persist into early Wednesday morning before gradually
diminishing.

KSEA...A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings in scattered showers are
expected to solidify into mostly low MVFR later this morning as
stratiform rain associated with the next frontal system spreads into
the area. MVFR ceilings and visibilities in rain will continue into
tonight. Instances of visibilities below 3 miles/IFR are possible in
heavier periods of rain. There is also a non-zero chance of
lightning as the front moves through the terminal between 09-12Z,
however, confidence to add in TAF is too low at this time. Southerly
surface winds of 8 to 12 knots this morning will increase around 19Z-
20Z and become quite gusty from the southwest tonight. Gusts of 30
to 40 knots, potentially higher, are expected between 06Z tonight
and 12Z Wednesday morning.

27/Gerhardt

&&

.MARINE...
A strong frontal system will move into Western Washington late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Gale force winds developing
ahead of the front over the coastal waters. Sharp pressure rises
behind the front will produce a round of strong winds over all the
waters. Gale warnings are in effect for all the waters tonight with
storm warnings up for the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca
for a few hour window in the early morning hours Wednesday.
Winds easing later Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with
small craft advisory winds continuing over the coastal waters and in
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A low pressure system arrives on
Thursday and keep small craft advisory winds going over the coastal
waters.

Seas in the 10 to 14 foot range today building to 18 to 24 feet
tonight into Wednesday. Seas subsiding back down to 10 to 14 feet
Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas remain just above 10 feet
Thursday night falling back into single digits Friday.

Felton/Gerhardt

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another frontal system will bring one to three inches of
precipitation to the mountains through Wednesday with an inch or
less in the lowlands. Cooler air moving into the area later tonight
adds some uncertainty to the forecast river levels with snow levels
dropping to 2000 to 2500 feet Wednesday morning. The front tonight
has more moisture than the system Monday but the cooler air will
keep some of the moisture in the mountains in the form of snow. This
combination makes for tricky river forecasting.

Major flooding is possible on the Skagit river beginning Wednesday
morning in the upper reaches with the flood crest reaching Mount
Vernon Thursday morning. Several other rivers are forecast to reach
minor flood but there is a farir amount of uncertainty with the
crests, especially due to how quickly and and how low the snow level
gets.

A flood watch is in effect through Thursday afternoon across the
lowlands.

The landslide threat remains very elevated will continue to be high
through at least tomorrow.

Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST Wednesday
     for City of Seattle-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-
     Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills
     and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-
     Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King
     Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
     Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County-
     Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce
     and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern
     King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades
     of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown
     Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys
     of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce
     and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of
     Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and
     Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and
     Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western
     and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-
     Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and
     Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and
     Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
     Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
     Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and
     Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Shoreline / Lynnwood /
     South Everett Area-Willapa and Black Hills.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
     Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
     Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades
     of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
     Counties-Olympics.

     High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST
     Wednesday for Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern
     Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills of the Western and
     Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-
     Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower
     Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern
     King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
     Snohomish Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern
     Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern
     Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-Southern Hood Canal-
     Western Strait of Juan de Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor
     Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from noon today to noon PST Wednesday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight PST tonight
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Wednesday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday for
     Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
     Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$